240
FXUS65 KMSO 060743
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
143 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Mild conditions most of the week.

- Change to a cooler, moister pattern this weekend.

- Snow potential coming late next weekend and early next week.

Warm and dry conditions continue, for now, Friday while
temperatures remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal southerly winds
increase announcing a trough digging to our west.

There remains significant uncertainty in how fast change comes to
the Northern Rockies and how exactly that change manifests
itself. One thing does seem certain, summer-like temperatures end.
By Saturday, 75% of all model solutions have high temperatures 20
degrees cooler than Friday and 25% of solutions forecast a 30
degree change. Sunday`s forecast suggests an additional 5 to 10
degrees of cooling. One other component that seems dialed in is
breezy conditions pre cold front on Friday and then winds turning
northeasterly Saturday as a backdoor cold front moves through the
region.

What is still very much in question, how much precipitation
ultimately falls, how low do snow levels lower, and how receptive
a warm ground will be to accumulation in the mountains. Along the
Continental Divide is the best location for both precipitation
and simultaneously snow levels at or below pass level.


&&

.AVIATION...High pressure continues to dominate the air space
above the Northern Rockies. Cold mornings, warm afternoons, with
stable conditions is to be expected. Morning fog at KGPI is
currently in the TAFs but may not be as problematic as the past
few days.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$