549
FXUS65 KBYZ 052342
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
542 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above average and mostly dry through Monday.

- Windy and warm Tuesday; gusts up to 60 mph possible west of
  Billings.

- Average temperatures and precipitation chances return mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday...

As the ridge has now fully built in over the intermountain west,
quiet and mostly sunny weather will continue through tomorrow. An
isolated shower is possible in Carter Co. MT and over the high
terrain, but other than that dry conditions will persist. A
backdoor cold front is pushing through the region at this time
switching the surface winds to light out of the ENE by this
evening. This could allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight
tonight up against the mountains around Sheridan and Livingston
due to that upslope enhancement. Chances for this remain low
(20-30%) and if this were to occur it would be in localized areas
against terrain only.

The next feature of note will move into the region on Tuesday
which will bring some 40-50kt 700mb winds down over south-centeral
Montana. This, combined with decent low-level lapse rates, will
allow for gusty winds in and around Livingston, Big Timber, and
Harlowton. At this time the 700mb winds appear to be around 40kts
across our region of interest during Tuesday afternoon and lapse
rates are forecast around 7 C/KM. While not a slam dunk scenario,
this setup is a notoriously windy one for the region and if the
lapse rates improve over the next few runs and 700mb winds
continue slowly trending upwards, 60 mph wind gusts could easily
occur along the US-191 corridor.

In combination with the wind, high temperatures will be roughly 15
F above average and RH values my touch 20% in the foothills west
of Billings. This may allow for some localized grass fire
concerns. Even though some light precip occurred over the past
week (generally under 0.1") this was not evenly spread across
south-centeral Montana and thus there may be pockets of higher
grassfire conditions and pockets with low concern.

Tuesday evening a cold front will push through the CWA from NW to
SE bringing with it some light precipitation. It is worth noting
that mid and long range models have notably trended downwards in
both QPF and precip chances with this system compared to just a
day ago. The one parameter that has trended upwards ahead of the
FROPA is SB-CAPE. The NBM ensemble mean now has a decent region of
at least 200 J/Kg including Billings and Sheridan. This would be
enough for a few strikes of lightning associated with the light
precipitation Tuesday evening.

Later in the week there are some signals for more light
precipitation, however, nothing is concrete and models continue to
vary. Temperatures will remain near to just above average for
much of the next week with the exception, of course, being Tuesday
and potently for a day or two of 70s at the end of the week. WMR

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Discussion...Snow melt in the Bighorn Foothills will
bring a good chance (60%) for fog development there after 08z
tonight, including the KSHR vicinity. IFR to LIFR conditions can
be expected with any fog that does form. Fog potential lifts by
around 16z Monday morning. Outside of this pocket of fog, VFR
conditions are expected through Monday. There is a slight chance
(20%) for light showers over SE Montana late tonight through
Monday morning including KMLS/KBHK terminals. However, flight
conditions are expected to remain VFR even during precipitation
periods. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/055 036/076 036/056 029/057 033/066 040/073
    0/B 01/E    02/W    51/B    11/U    11/U    12/W
LVM 064 033/058 035/070 033/054 029/059 032/065 040/068
    0/B 01/E    02/W    31/N    12/W    11/B    14/W
HDN 061 033/058 032/077 035/054 027/058 030/068 038/075
    0/B 11/E    02/W    72/J    11/U    11/U    13/W
MLS 055 031/048 032/076 035/045 024/052 029/065 040/072
    0/B 11/E    02/W    72/W    01/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 057 031/048 032/073 036/050 026/054 030/064 041/073
    0/U 11/E    00/B    72/J    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 053 025/041 027/068 031/043 021/048 026/059 036/069
    1/E 21/E    00/B    72/J    01/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 058 028/054 031/071 030/051 024/055 028/065 037/070
    0/U 01/E    02/W    73/W    22/W    21/U    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
      Tuesday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings