636
FXUS63 KEAX 060450
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another frost/freeze night likely for northern areas Monday
  night/Tuesday morning.
  - Frost possible tonight/early Monday for northern areas as well

* Chances (>40%-60%) for rain turning to snow Monday night into
  early Tuesday morning over northern Missouri and into Iowa.
  - A narrow band of heavier accumulating snow possible

* Active pattern with warmer temperatures and multiple opportunities
  for precipitation... as early as Wednesday night through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Abundantly quiet conditions prevailed across the area, albeit on the
chilly side this morning, under the influence of NE winds and
surface high pressure. Aside from a small handful of fair weather
cumulus seen on satellite, skies remained clear to mostly clear
across the region with temperatures rising into mid and upper 50s by
early this afternoon.

After the quiet weekend, activity tends to pick up within the
forecast, especially once we reach mid-late week and onward. But
first, we will see back-door type cold front drop down into portions
of the forecast area tonight and into/through Monday. This tends to
bifurcate the area with highs ranging from the low 50s (north) to
the upper 60s (south). More importantly, this likely places a low
level (~900-800mb) boundary across northern portions of Missouri.
While we are in that transition window from synoptic to hi-res time
scales, both sets tend to be in good agreement of jet streak
dropping through the flow, the broad position of that low-level
boundary, and at least decent f-gen forcing at that level. This has
been reflected in a general uptick in QPF among guidance and
some honing in on the narrow band/banded potential. Temperatures
dictate a rain to snow transition Monday evening into
overnight, which also further complicates the snowfall amount
forecast. SLRs in the single digits are effectively guaranteed
with much of the sounding within a couple degrees of freezing
and a narrow area of ice introduction/DGZ saturation. The
forecast package this afternoon more broadly highlights areas
north of Highway 36 for light snowfall potential and a corridor
of up to a couple inches closer to the Iowa border. Where the
forecast likely falls short is the potential for a narrow band
of a few inches possible given the forcing mentioned above. As
we further enter hi-res windows, expect the snowfall area to
likely narrow and indicate a stronger potential for a heavier
narrow band. The heavier/wet nature may make travel especially
slick at times should it be able to stick to roadways. Snowfall
or not, this too will highlight areas for another frost/freeze
opportunity Monday night/Tuesday morning with forecast lows in
the low 30s. Again, primarily around/norther of Highway 36, if
not down toward the Missouri River. Colder conditions hang on
through Tuesday for areas north of the cold front before warmer
temperatures surge back.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

By Wednesday/mid-week, surface high pressure across the Northern
Plains scoots into/through the Great Lakes, allowing southerly winds
and warmer temperatures to surge northward. This will push
temperatures back toward and above normal into the 60s/70s much of
the remainder of the forecast. This too will begin to set the table
for numerous (seemingly never ending) precipitation opportunities to
round out the work week and through the weekend.

Within the large scale, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal
by mid-week with shortwave disturbances moving through both the
southern and northern streams. Much of Wednesday looks to remain dry
as the area remains largely moisture starved and deepest initial
forcing displaced southward. By the evening/overnight, deeper
moisture return begins to advect northward into/through the Plains
ahead of the northern stream wave and an approaching surface
front. This tends to yield our first of numerous
shower/thunderstorm opportunities through the remainder of the
forecast. Said frontal boundary is largely anticipated to hang
out within the area, continuing shower/storm chances through
Thursday if not Friday and into Saturday as a large surface high
is depicted slowly crossing the Northern Plains. The
strong/severe storm risk too as a result appears quite limited
at this time. Instead, the river and areal flood risk may be the
main concern depending on how the surface boundary migrates
during this time frame.

Shower/storm opportunities remain Saturday and Sunday as a
deeper southern stream wave moves into the SW CONUS, turning
mid-upper level flow pattern more southwesterly over the central
CONUS. As multiple compact shortwaves eject out of the larger
feature, moisture will be continuing to advect into the region
to help fuel these opportunities. Stronger wind profiles may
suggest some stronger/severe storm opportunity, but much to
navigate prior to this time frame. Otherwise, expect largely
seasonal temperatures, as noted above.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

High pressure will keep conditions clear through the overnight
hours. Increasing high-level clouds expected by late Monday
afternoon. Ceilings will start to develop later Monday evening.
Rain/Snow mix expected in northern Missouri, but may not reach
STJ or KC Metro terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Curtis
AVIATION...Krull