149
FXUS63 KPAH 200826
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
326 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy thunderstorms will continue across parts of southeast
  Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky early this
  morning. A Flood Watch remain in effect until 7 AM CDT.

- Much quieter weather with near to slightly below normal
  temperatures are forecast through this weekend into early next
  week.

- Small daily 15 to 25% chances of showers and thunderstorms
  return to the forecast Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Very heavy thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will
continue early this morning across southeast MO, far southern
IL, and western KY. This activity extends along a frontal
boundary that extended W to E just north of the KY/TN and MO/AR
border. With PWAT values of 2.0-2.3" and training storms, the
threat for flash flooding will continue through daybreak.

Showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this morning has
the front shift south of the region, and dry weather is expected
from this afternoon through Friday. With broad troughing over
the eastern CONUS, temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal. Another front will approach the area Saturday and
stall just north of the area through early next week. This will
be enough to bring small 15-25% shower and storm chances each
day Saturday into early next week. Temperatures will remain
around normal values for late August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TSRA will continue to plague KCGI and KPAH terminals over the
next several hours before gradually diminishing. Severe risk
appears to be largely confined to the south of both terminals,
but can`t rule out some gusty winds and even some hail with any
stronger elevated cores. Conditions will drop to MVFR and IFR in
the TSRA with localized LIFR possible. KOWB will be on the
northern fringes of any precipitation and continued to handle
the potential with PROB30 mention for now, but will amend if it
trends or develops northward and probability for impact
increases. Low level moisture and light flow will present the
potential for some low clouds and fog late tonight and Thursday
AM. Some uncertainty on extent due to considerable debris
cloudiness overhead, but stayed the course with previous TAFs
for now with MVFR to local IFR conditions 10z-16z. Thereafter,
expect improvement to VFR with light NNE winds in the wake of a
cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SP