175
FXUS63 KEAX 011717
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into
  the overnight hours.

- Unsettled weather lingers into Tuesday with temperatures
  closer to normal through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Precipitation chances will decrease through the morning hours today
as shortwave ridging builds eastward into the area. However,
moisture will be trapped in the lower portions of the atmosphere so
we`ll continue to see cloud cover. This should keep highs in the 60s
across the area.

Focus shifts to Monday afternoon through the overnight hours as a
strong shortwave trough moves east into the central US. A surface
low will deepen across Nebraska with a front trailing southward
through Kansas. Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to
anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for
heavy rainfall. In the upper-levels, a leading jet max may help
initiate storms in the warm sector. But`s a trailing, stronger
jet max will move across the area later in the day and into the
overnight hours. And that seems to be the more likely time frame
for severe storms across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
Storms seem likely to initiate along the cold front in central
Kansas and Oklahoma during the afternoon. These may be
supercells initially but these should develop into a line as
they move east late in the afternoon and evening, with damaging
winds being the most likely hazard. Favorable 0-3KM shear of
30-40kts may also support embedded circulations within the line
of storms. With 0-.5km helicity values pushing 200 m2/s2 can`t
rule out a tornado or two over eastern Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri as the line of storms moves east during the evening
and overnight hours. The Slight Risk area was expanded
northeastward on the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook, with much
of western Missouri and eastern Kansas in a Marginal Risk.

Unsettled weather will linger into Tuesday, though how unsettled it
may be is a little uncertain. The deterministic NAM is considerably
slower with the upper wave and and actually has some potential for
severe weather Tuesday morning. The GFS is further east with
potential storms east of our forecast area. With the upper low
moving over Kansas into Missouri through the day, we should still
see some potential for precipitation through the day Tuesday.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler,
though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs
generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Moisture continues to push into the area and will allow cloud
cover to continue. There may be some breaks this afternoon but
bases will still be between 1 to 2 kft AGL. Most of the rain
shower and thunderstorm activity Monday will hold off until
after 18z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull