443
FXUS64 KLIX 060614
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
114 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through Tuesday and likely will
  need to be extended for much of the local waters through the
  workweek.

- A prolonged period of strong easterly winds over the north-
  central and northeastern Gulf increases the coastal flood threat
  on east facing shorelines Tuesday through late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The frontal boundary that passed through the region early Sunday
resides just south of the Gulf coast. Along this feature, a few
showers have been occurring. This will likely continue especially
as an H5 vort/impulse moves east within the westerly flow aloft.
This feature will help push the surface front further downstream
later today and early this evening...with shower activity shifting
southeast away from the region. Behind the impulse a drier
northwest flow develops aloft.

At the surface a strong high pressure will be moving eastward
through the Great Lakes Region through the period and eventually
off the New England Coast by midweek. This will keep pressure
gradient rather tight. Moderate northerly and northeasterly winds
will slowly transition to a more easterly direction as the high
moves eastward. This will have two local impacts. First, with an
easterly quasi onshore flow, right along the immediate coast
temperatures may be held down just a bit due to the cooler water
surface. Secondly, as easterly winds continue with a longer fetch,
minor coastal flooding issues are becoming increasingly likely to
develop going into midweek with the best potential during high
tide cycles Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent easterly
flow, water will begin to also pile into the lakes leaving
easterly facing shorelines and tidal lakes likely to see higher
than normal tides. With low level moisture increasing by midweek,
showers and a few thunderstorms similar to last week will be
possible during the late morning through early evening hours
(during peak heating). Otherwise, away from the coast, winds will
not be as breezy and temperatures will begin to modestly increase
Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist through at least the
Friday leading to continued coastal flooding concerns. Those who
live in low lying coastal areas should continue to monitor the
forecast for updates regarding potential impacts. Winds will finally
begin to ease over the weekend, coincident with a transition from
the spring tide cycle to neap tide cycle by Monday and Tuesday. This
should result in easing impacts, though it could take a few extra
days for water to drain from some of the more protected areas.

Otherwise, mid level high pressure will generally dominate the area
through the period leading to warmer than normal temperatures and
limited rain chances. (DM)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Mostly VFR conditions outside of HUM where some morning showers
will be possible. These conditions will eventually improve in
time. Otherwise, the primary story will be gusty northeasterly
winds, especially closer to coastal locations. Winds apart from
NEW should decrease shortly after sunset this evening. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing across the local waters and
will likely continue through Tuesday and beyond as strong pressure
gradient from a strong high pressure over the Great Lakes and
northwest Atlantic lingers. Eventually, north or northeasterly
winds will transition to a moderate to strong easterly direction
by midweek as the high pressure begins to finally spread east.
Winds and seas are forecast to remain hazardous with only a slight
decrease in winds possibly toward the end of the forecast period,
however, Small Craft or cautionary headlines remain probable going
into the next upcoming weekend. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF