380
FXUS63 KMPX 061643
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1143 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs near 80,
  then temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels through the
  rest of the week.

- Warm temps, dry air, and breezy conditions will help raise
  concerns for elevated fire weather conditions across portions
  of western MN Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Overall a quiet early morning and noticeably warmer than what it was
24 hours ago at this time. Current temperatures range in the mid to
upper 50s across most areas with mostly clear skies. A warm front
currently spans from central North Dakota down to central Iowa.
Aloft, troughing over northern Manitoba will move east into
Ontario today pulling this surface warm front farther into MN.
This warm advective pattern will support breezy conditions with
wind speeds between 20 to 30 mph for at least the first half of
today. Winds will decrease through the course of the afternoon
as the front pushes farther to the northeast. The result of this
is temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s for most
today while even a few areas southwest of the MN River Valley
could see the lower 80s.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned troughing pattern deepens over
the Hudson Bay region. On the western side of this trough, a
surface cold front will help reduce temperatures slightly back
into the lower 70 to mid 70s. No rain is expected with this
front but drier air, breezy conditions, and warmer temps will
help elevate fire weather concerns across portions of western
MN. Thursday through this weekend remains dry as upper-level
ridging becomes the dominant feature. Temperatures will
gradually climb back into the upper 70s once again by Saturday
before falling to slightly below normal temperatures early next
week. Still lots of modeling time between now and early next
week but potentially something tries to get going near the Four
Coroners region Monday into Tuesday. Once this front passes,
temepratures will cool to slightly below- normal in the upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Only concern for this TAF period is a couple of wind shifts.
KAXN has already started the turn to the northwest with the
other Minnesota terminals following through this evening with a
FROPA. Further to the southeast, southwest winds are still
gusting to around 20kts, but speeds will decrease by this
evening. Light northwest winds are expected for all overnight
tonight before a shift back to the west for tomorrow afternoon.
Speeds will start to tick up by the end of the forecast period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye