670
FXUS63 KDLH 011738
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1138 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, locally dense, is occurring this morning along
  with drizzle and scattered rain showers. Expect fog to
  gradually dissipate by the afternoon, with rain also tapering
  off later today.

- A large area of low pressure is expected to impact the Upper Midwest
  early this upcoming week. Widespread significant rainfall
  amounts of at least 1" are forecast over a period from Monday
  through Wednesday.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures is favored to develop
  in the latter half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy fog, drizzle, and scattered showers are occurring early this
morning as a warm front continues to lift north into the CWA. As
diurnal heating begins today and the warm front continues to move
north, fog is anticipated to slowly clear late this morning into the
early afternoon. Once fog clears, a few breaks in the clouds will be
occurring this afternoon as drier air filters in. Expect warm high
temps this afternoon in the low to mid 60s for most of the region.

Widespread rain remains in the forecast on Monday through Wednesday
as a deep trough moves through the Intermountain West today and
propagates a large low pressure system into the central CONUS early
this upcoming week. Anomalous amounts of moisture remain the
highlight with this early week system, as deep Gulf moisture
advection into the CWA occurs in conjunction with a brief Pineapple
Express atmospheric river. The ECMWF EFI table continues to show
that QPF is forecast to be in the 90th percentile of climatology.

In terms of QPF amounts, the latest NBM run still has a 80% or
greater chance for 1" of rain from Monday morning through Tuesday
night. Higher amounts are trending similar since the previous
update, with higher QPF amounts of 2" or greater most likely (50-75%
chance) to occur in north-central MN. Higher amounts of QPF are also
forecast along the terrain ridge of the North Shore as southeast
winds on Monday result in orographic enhancement. Expect rain to
continue on Wednesday, although the heaviest rainfall rates are
expected to be on Monday afternoon and evening.

Beyond the early week system, the forecast remains on track with a
drier pattern moving in for the latter half of the week into next
weekend. Please see the previous discussion for more details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers are currently moving north throughout the
Northland, though they are still fighting some dry air.
Scattered showers will continue into this evening and tonight as
Trick or Treaters head out. While there may be a shower here and
there, Trick or Treaters will not have to worry about freezing
temperatures, as warm air advection will keep temperatures in
the upper 40s and lower 50s with lower 40s near Lake Superior.
Overall rainfall amounts for the rest of the day and overnight
will stay light at a tenth of an inch or less, though patchy fog
will likely develop across the area late tonight where rain
falls. Fog is most likely to form where rain falls throughout
the day today.

On Sunday, any lingering morning drizzle and patchy fog will burn
off as a warm front lifts north into Ontario. A brief period of
partial clearing will allow mild air to spread over our region,
sending afternoon highs into the lower to middle 60s for many
inland locations. Skies will turn mostly cloudy again late
Sunday night as the next storm system gathers over the Plains.

Widespread rain showers are still expected Monday into Tuesday. A
strong plume of moisture from the Gulf and an atmospheric river
will bring a soaking rainfall across the area, as precipitable
water values are near the climatological maximum for this time
of year across the Northland. Quick changes in pressure ahead
of the system will lead to windy conditions with the rain,
leading to winds of 20-30 mph Monday daytime. Isolated embedded
storms are possible Tuesday as instability is added to the mix.
Severe weather is not anticipated, but also cannot be
completely ruled out at this time. Showers will remain likely
Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper low dropping out of the
Canadian Prairies interacts with the system over the Upper
Midwest. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east through
Wednesday afternoon as the center of low pressure slowly
departs into the Great Lakes, leaving damp and cloudy conditions
across the region. Most of the area has at least an 80% chance
for an inch or more of rain. However, chances for 2 inches or
higher have decreased slightly, and expected totals have
decreased slightly as well. These probabilities will be
monitored of how they adjust as the event nears.

High pressure will build into the Northland for Thursday and Friday,
bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail
for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy skies will linger.
Cooler air filtering in behind the departing system will return
temperatures to seasonal norms, with highs retreating into the 40s
and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fog is finally lifting for this afternoon, but low stratus off
Lake Superior tonight is expected to cause the fog to redevelop
at DLH with lower confidence that it could reach HIB as well.
Ceilings are expected to lower again tonight as the system that
will bring moderate rain showers moves into the area. MVFR to
IFR visibilities are possible with the heaviest rainfall.
Southeast winds will also increase with the approach of the
system Monday morning as gusts up to 25 kts are expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Generally quiet marine conditions will persist across Western Lake
Superior through tonight with waves of 1 foot or less and winds
generally under 10 knots. While winds and waves will be relatively
benign, patchy fog may reduce visibility this evening into tonight,
especially along the North Shore. Winds will increase early this
upcoming week as a large area of low pressure moves into the Upper
Midwest. Breezy northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots are
briefly in the forecast on Monday afternoon and evening, especially
around the Twin Ports. This may necessitate a Small Craft Advisory,
although there is some uncertainty at this time on the degree
of stable conditions that could be in place on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal today through at least
Wednesday as a wet pattern settles over the area and min RH remains
elevated. Widespread rain is expected to occur Monday through
Wednesday, with 1" or greater of total rainfall being extremely
likely (80-97% chance), with the lowest potential being in far north-
central MN near the International Border. Rainfall amounts of 2" or
greater are likely (50-75% chance) around the Brainerd Lakes as well
as in the higher elevations of the North Shore terrain ridge. Winds
today through Monday night will generally be from the south to
southeast, shifting to the north-northwest on Tuesday as low
pressure moves downstream and a cold front sweeps through.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Unruh
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh