377
FXUS61 KBOX 060746
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
346 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could see a few
  rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.

- Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures
  on the rise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could
see a few rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.

A upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and into
New England will bring a cold pool aloft, with 850mb
temperatures around -5C and 500mb temperatures below -30C. A
shortwave then moves through, which would help support some
light snow showers possibly developing and mixing in with rain
showers, especially over the higher elevation areas. Guidance
has trended towards a later start, perhaps after midnight/early
Tuesday morning instead of Monday... though we can`t rule out a
stray shower developing today in the higher elevations. Surface
temperatures will likely hover near or possibly just below
freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning, but they`re expected
to make a fast recovery later Tuesday morning... into the low
to mid 40s. A secondary shortwave moves through later Tuesday
and may allow showers to linger through part of the day, but not
expecting much in the way of rain totals.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with
temperatures on the rise.

Drier conditions and southwesterly flow are expected to return
to southern New England as a large high pressure system moves
into the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Temperatures will
improve throughout the second half of the week as the upper
level trough moves off to the east and a warmer airmass advects
into the region. Expecting highs to rebound into the 50s by
Thursday and further improve into the 60s by Friday. However,
some uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as some
ensemble guidance hints at another backdoor front moving in
Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure moving east from just
to our north could encourage onshore flow early Sunday morning
and possibly continuing through the day before it shifts further
offshore and winds return to SW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

Mainly VFR; Some MVFR cigs possible in the higher terrain later
this afternoon. NW winds increasing through this morning to
12-17 kt and gusts 25-35 kt, with the highest gusts in the
higher terrains.

Monday Night: High confidence overall, though moderate on
possible precip chances.

Disturbance aloft moves through Southern New England Mon night,
which will bring at least SCT-OVC cloud deck, mainly VFR
ceilings. Less confident on if any precip with sweep through,
but potential exists for brief periods of MVFR visby under
-SHSN. NW winds decrease to 8-12 kt with gusts in low 20 knot range.

Tuesday: Moderate confidence.

Could see some -SHSN spreading east across SNE early Tues AM,
but not very confident on exact timing or if anything will
manifest at BOS. Generally W winds 10-15 knots with occasional
gusts 20-25 knots possible.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night:

Thursday through Friday: Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence.

SCAs continue through most of today with seas at or above 5 ft
across most waters and SW winds gusting 25-30 kts. Guidance has
lowered on wind speeds Mon night into Tues morning, so elected
to allow SCAs to expire later this afternoon.

Seas remain below 5 ft through Tuesday, but some northwesterly
wind gusts may approach SCA levels Tuesday evening across the
southern waters ahead of an approaching high pressure system.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn