590
FXUS61 KBOX 161113
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
613 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast during this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few remnant snow showers this morning, mainly for the south
 coast. Conditions trend dry for the remainder of the day.
 Another round of light snow showers and flurries in the Tuesday
 morning timeframe.

- An active, low-predictability pattern will bring periodic
  rain and snow showers and breaks of dry weather Wednesday
  through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Few remnant snow showers this morning, mainly
for the south coast. Conditions trend dry for the remainder of
the day. Another round of light snow showers and flurries in the
Tuesday morning timeframe.

Light snow showers will linger as the two atmospheric
disturbances track further east and offshore this morning.
Higher probabilities for seeing light snow showers will be on
the south coast and Cape and Islands. Any lingering showers
should exit east of Nantucket by mid-morning. Trace to a tenth
or two possible for totals in the favored southern areas.

Otherwise remainder of the day will trend drier although mainly
cloudy with light easterly winds. High temperatures will be
seasonable in the mid to upper 30s.

Another mid-level shortwave trough drops southward across the
region late Monday into Tuesday. It will bring along a period of
lift/weak WAA accompanied by a plume of above normal moisture
(130-150% of normal). This will be enough to support the
potential for light scattered snow showers or flurries.
Showers/flurries spread from west to east in the early Tuesday
morning through early afternoon. Based on model soundings,
moisture will not be deep, limiting any efficient snow
production. This will favor light snow rates or flurries. CAMs
continue to highlight the scattered nature of the showers which
has resulted in a chance (< 30%) for snow showers/flurries
Tuesday AM. Ensembles seem to catch onto the limited environment
and show very little snow accumulation with this. Most
solutions range from a trace to a few tenths. Can`t rule out the
low chance for a little freezing drizzle when more dry air
works in early-mid morning (mainly west).

Key Message 2...An active, low-predictability pattern will
bring periodic rain and snow showers and breaks of dry weather
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

No major changes are expected to the forecast from Wednesday
through Sunday. The overarching synoptic pattern features a
subtropical ridge over the Gulf, which displaces the subtropical
jet northward and results in generally zonal flow across the
southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern favors unsettled
conditions as multiple shortwave impulses eject from the Pacific
and traverse across the CONUS. Overall, this pattern supports
an active regime with near normal temperatures for southern New
England.

There is increasing consensus among the guidance that the first
round of precipitation arrives mid-morning to early afternoon
on Wednesday as an elongated frontal boundary develops from the
Upper Midwest into the Northeast. However, considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of this
boundary, which will ultimately determine precipitation type. As
mentioned previously, this remains a low-predictability pattern
with respect to the finer details. Depending on the guidance
solution, the boundary could set up anywhere from central New
England (ECMWF) to directly over southern New England (NAM, GFS,
UKMET), while the AI version of the GFS and ECMWF place it
closer to the Long Island Sound. As such, forecast confidence
remains low due to significant variability in boundary
placement. Given the strong high pressure over eastern Canada,
the greatest potential for snow is currently confined to the
higher terrain of western and northern Massachusetts. Currently,
there is a low to moderate probability (30-60%) of 3 inches of
snow along and north of the frontal boundary. However, modest
shifts in the boundary position could significantly alter
amounts. While lower elevations are more likely to see a cold
rain, especially across the coastal plain of CT, RI, and eastern
MA. Snow cannot be completely ruled out if later guidance
trends the boundary further south.

Following a relative lull in activity, the next round of
moisture is expected to return Friday, with additional chances
for precipitation possible into the weekend. However, guidance
diverges considerably beyond Friday, resulting in low confidence
regarding exact timing and coverage. It it important to note
that precipitation is not expected to be continuous, and periods
of dry weather are likely between systems.

Temperature are expected to trend near seasonal normals or
slightly above through midweek, with daytime highs generally in
the low 40s. Later in the week, temperatures trend back into the
mid to upper 30s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence. Moderate on MVFR cigs.

BKN/OVC VFR ceilings. Low chance for -SHSN at ACK through 15Z.
Low end VFR to borderline MVFR possible in any showers. There is
potential for patchy low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs developing
this morning mainly at the eastern terminals. NNE winds in AM
becoming NE at 6-11 kts.

Tonight and Tuesday: High confidence.

MVFR conditions move in after 09Z with arrival of light
scattered snow showers/flurries from west to east. Showers push
east through the day Tuesday. Any accumulation (if any) trace
to at most a few tenths. Light NNE winds this evening become SW
overnight less than 8 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Moderate for MVFR
ceiling potential.

Potential for patchy high end MVFR ceilings developing late
morning into early afternoon. Another system moves through early
Tuesday morning brings chances for scattered light snow
showers/MVFR after 10Z Tue.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Dry with light NNE winds. Light snow shower chances again
tonight into Tuesday with MVFR conditions.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. RA, chance SN.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SN
likely, RA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance
SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

* Small Craft Advisory issued for seas of 4-7 ft across the
  southern and southeastern waters, beginning tonight through
  Tuesday.

Today through Tuesday... High Confidence.

A deepening low pressure system moves off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and resulting with building seas across the southern outer
waters, ranging 3-5 ft by late afternoon. Cannot rule out iso
to sct`d snow showers for eastern zones, otherwise dry, and
winds east-northeast at 10 to 15 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt. Seas
increase overnight through Tuesday as a gale center moves
northeast and out to sea. Outer most waters have seas 4 to 7 ft
through Tuesday night. Winds become calm late tonight and then
southwest Tuesday morning, veering westerly come Tuesday night,
speeds 10 to 15 kt.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
likely, chance of snow.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of snow.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch