172
FXUS61 KLWX 060721
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories were extended until 10 AM for all waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Primarily dry conditions are expected through the week,
  with cool temperatures to start, followed by a warming trend
  late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Primarily dry conditions are expected through
the week, with cool temperatures to start, followed by a warming
trend late in the week.

Upper troughing will pass to our north today, as an embedded
disturbance tracks through the Great Lakes. This disturbance may
spark the development of a few showers in the Alleghenies or
across northern Maryland this afternoon. Outside of these
showers, dry conditions are expected across the forecast area
through at least Friday. There may be a small chance for a
shower on Saturday as a decaying frontal boundary approaches
from the northwest, but that looks to be very light even if it
were to occur.

A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day today, with
more clouds to the northwest across northern MD and the WV
Panhandle, and more sun to the south and east of the I-95
corridor. Temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday, but
still close to normal for early April, with highs generally in
the upper 50s to mid 60s (upper 40s mountains). Winds will gust
to around 20-25 mph out of the northwest, making it feel a bit
cooler. Winds will go light for a time this evening, before
picking up again late in the night as a reinforcing cold front
moves through the area. Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s for most, with upper 20s to low 30s in the mountains.

High pressure will build to our north over the Great Lakes
tomorrow, leading to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will run
about 10 degrees below normal, with highs for most in the upper
40s and 50s (upper 30s to low 40s mountains). A northwesterly
breeze of around 20 mph will make it feel even cooler. High
pressure will become centered to our north over the Southern
Tier of NY Tuesday night, with a surface ridge extending
southward into our area. Skies will be clear, and winds should
go light or calm, setting the stage for an ideal radiational
cooling night. Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing
to the northwest of I-95, with lows in the 20s for many. Since
we`ll be before the average date of the last freeze (April
11th), we likely won`t be issuing any Frost Advisories or Freeze
Warnings, but those with plants or sensitive vegetation outside
should be aware of the threat for a freeze to the north and west
of I-95.

High pressure will progress offshore for Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday. As winds turn southeasterly in response, a warming
trend in temperatures is expected through the end of the week,
with forecast highs generally in the 50s on Wednesday, 60s on
Thursday, 70s on Friday, and potentially nearing 80 this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the week. Winds will be
out of the northwest to start the day, before shifting to out of
the west this afternoon. Gusts to around 20-25 knots may be
possible throughout the day. Winds decrease and may go light and
variable for a time overnight, before picking up out of the
northwest again toward daybreak behind a reinforcing cold front.
These northwesterly winds should gust to around 20 knots through
the day Tuesday. Lighter winds southeasterly winds are forecast
for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure moves offshore.
Light southerly winds are expected on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect for all waters through 10 AM in
northwesterly flow. The forecast for this afternoon is
challenging, as there`s hints that the main channel of the Bay
may have southerly winds, while much of the Tidal Potomac and
potentially Baltimore Harbor may have westerly winds. Gusts to
low-end SCA level may be possible in the locations that receive
westerly flow, but confidence was too low to issue additional
SCAs at this time. Winds will pick up out of the northwest late
tonight into the day Tuesday behind a reinforcing cold front.
Confidence is higher for SCA gusts during the day tomorrow.
Thereafter, lighter winds are expected over the waters for
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday as high pressure builds
offshore. Winds are forecast to be out of the southeast on
Wednesday and Thursday, and then out of the south on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation is expected across the forecast area through the
upcoming work week as a drier airmass works in from the northwest.
Following a wetting rainfall yesterday, the threat for dangerous
fire weather conditions appears to be low today, despite RHs
dropping into the upper 20s and 30s, with winds gusting to around 20-
25 mph out of the west.

Tuesday currently appears to be the most threatening fire weather
day of the week, with northwesterly winds gusting to around 20-25
mph and RHs dropping into the 20s for most, and potentially even the
teens across Central Virginia. Conditions will remain dry on
Wednesday with min RHs in the upper 20s and lower 30s, but winds
will be lighter, and out of the southeast. Continued lighter
winds are expected for Thursday and Friday, with min RHs
forecast to be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP
AVIATION...KJP
MARINE...KJP