665
FXUS61 KCAR 191852
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
252 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-The heaviest precipitation and snow has shifted south slightly
 Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of snow is expected for much of the area Friday
evening and Friday night. A light accumulation of snow will
result in slippery travel Saturday morning.

2) Snow is possible Sunday night and Monday, especially for the Bangor
region and Downeast areas, with possible impacts to the Monday
morning commute.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of snow is expected for much of the
area Friday evening and Friday night. A light accumulation of
snow will result in slippery travel Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Surface low pressure will develop within the left exit region
of a strong upper level jet maxima across southern Ontario and
move east-southeast across New Hampshire into the southern half
of Maine Friday night. Generally light precipitation will
overspread the area late Friday afternoon and evening, starting
as snow for most areas. Precipitation may mix with rain closer
to the coast. There is still some uncertainty in both the low
track and intensity, but guidance has generally shifted south
slightly from the previous forecasts, leading to the heaviest
QPF along the coast and more snow farther to the south. A
general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected across the forecast
area. If a stronger low solution develops, enhanced
frontogenesis banding could result in a localized swath of
totals of 3 to 5 inches from the Central Highlands east towards
northern and central Washington County. NBM, HREF, and LREF
blended probabilities indicate about a 30 percent chance of this
scenario occurring. Even a light accumulation of snow could
cause slippery roads, especially later Friday night and Saturday
morning as road surfaces fall below freezing overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Snow is possible Sunday night and Monday, especially for the
Bangor region and Downeast areas, with possible impacts to the
Monday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night. The low
is then expected to move east across the Gulf of Maine early
Monday and then pass to the south of Nova Scotia by Monday
evening. Meanwhile, strong high pressure at the surface will
remain anchored to our north across Quebec.

The low has the potential to bring some snow to the region Sunday
night into Monday. It appears as if the best chance for
measurable snow with this system will be closer to the Bangor
region and Downeast areas, with lesser chances to the north. In
fact, with cold high pressure anchored to the north across
Quebec province, it possible that far northern areas of
Aroostook County, especially the Saint John valley could receive
little, if any snowfall, with this system.

It is also possible that the low passes even farther south, as
some ensembles suggest, suppressing the snow even farther to
the south a cross southern New England. If this were to happen,
much of our area could miss out on measurable snow entirely. At
this point in time, the best chances for any travel impacts
later Sunday and Monday will be for the Bangor region and
Downeast.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through this evening, followed by a period of MVFR ceilings
between approximately 4 and 10z tonight with light to moderate
snow showers, heaviest and most numerous across northern
terminals. Tempo IFR or LIFR is possible in heavier SHSN. S
winds 5 to 10 kts.

Friday: VFR. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Friday night: MVFR/IFR with -SN, changing to -RA at some coastal
terminals. SE winds around 5 to 10 kts, shifting NNW late.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Scattered snow showers,
mainly Aroostook County terminals.

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR or lower in snow. Highest
probability of the lower conditions at KBGR/KBHB. Gusty N wind.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas below advisory criteria are expected through
Friday. Winds and seas increase Friday night to advisory levels.
There is a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of gale
force winds over the outer waters. There is also a moderate (30
to 40 percent) chance of advisory level winds over the
intracoastal waters. For now, confidence was only sufficient for
a Small Craft Advisory over the outer waters.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night through
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWD/MWS
AVIATION...TWD/MWS