400
FXUS61 KCAR 061754
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
154 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- The frost advisory tonight has been expanded to the Downeast
  coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The strong westerly winds will ease late this afternoon into
the evening.

2) Frost expected Downeast tonight with low temperatures
approaching freezing.

3) Light rain is likely late Wednesday into Thursday. Little to
no drought relief expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The strong westerly winds will ease late this
afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
So far as of early Monday afternoon, the highest winds have
been in Northern Maine, with 35 to 50 mph gusts and isolated
power outages, with not quite as much wind Bangor/Downeast with
gusts topping out 25 to 35 mph. The highest gusts have occurred
for most areas by early this afternoon, and winds will steadily
decrease through the rest of the afternoon and drop pretty fast
around sunset. Any additional damage should be before 5pm.
Wind chills atop Katahdin will remain in the teens through the
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost expected Downeast tonight with low
temperatures approaching freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure building in behind the departing low pressure
system should lead to clearing skies this evening, which in
combination with decreasing winds should allow for strong
overnight cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low
to mid 30s tonight over Downeast where the growing season is
still active. Areas to widespread frost are likely and thus a
Frost Advisory is in effect. Opted to expand the frost advisory
south to the coast. While do not think the very immediate coast
will get frost, feel that you will only have to go inland a mile
or two to see some frost, so expanded the advisory to the
coastal zones. Some high clouds will be moving in very late in
the night, but do not think they will be fast enough to limit
cooling especially in the area under the frost advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light rain is likely late Wednesday into Thursday.
Little to no drought relief expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Thickening clouds through the day Wednesday with perhaps some
sprinkles mainly over the north by midday. Rain chances
gradually increase late Wednesday and into Wednesday night, and
persist into Thursday. This is associated with an approaching
cold front that will move through during the day Thursday. All
together, rainfall from this system looks pretty light late
Wednesday into Thursday, with totals generally one tenth to one
third inch in the north and zero to one tenth of an inch
Downeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rest of Today...VFR. West/northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with
gusts up to 25 to 35 knots, strongest at northern terminals,
starting to decrease around 21z.

Tonight...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kts becoming light and
variable by 6z. LLWS early evening.

Wednesday...VFR. Southwest/south winds increasing to 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Chance of rain in the
afternoon, mainly northern terminals.

Wednesday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late, with possible IFR
BGR/BHB late. Light rain possible, mainly northern terminals.
South winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in showers. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday night...VFR. A slight chance of showers in the north.
WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of showers north. VFR
Downeast. W winds 10-15 kts.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. SW winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales until 5 PM EDT for the outer waters. Small craft
conditions on the intracoastal waters persist through 8 PM EDT
tonight and through about midnight tonight for the coastal
waters. Seas 3 to 7 ft decrease tonight. Quiet winds/seas
Wednesday.

Small craft advisory conditions possible Wednesday night into
Thursday. Winds should increase through Friday night with SCA
possible on Saturday. Decreasing winds Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001>006-010.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ016-017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.
 Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL