679
FXUS61 KCAR 041810
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
210 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Thunderstorm risk has decreased today, but remains for Tuesday
  with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from the SPC.
- Small Craft Advisory extended through Tuesday night for outer
  waters to 25NM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly
across northern areas, could be accompanied by isolated stronger
wind gusts.

2) A widespread rainfall is expected late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, which will continue to improve the long term
drought.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday, mainly across northern areas, could be accompanied by
isolated stronger wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Short wave trough exits into the Canadian Maritime Provinces late
this afternoon. Any lingering showers with this feature will quickly
dissipate by sunset. Ridging builds back in tonight giving way
to mainly clear skies.

Upper level pressure across central Canada slowly moves east
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A broad southwest flow can be
expected across the area ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary
approaching from the west. This will allow temperatures to
climb to well above normal levels, with highs in the lower 70s
expected across much of the area, except for Downeast areas
where the cooler ocean waters will keep temperatures from
getting quite as high.

Expect showers with isolated/scattered thunderstorms to develop
from west to east Tuesday afternoon, mainly from the Katahdin
region north and west. Dew points are only expected to only be
in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees, but cold temperatures
aloft will promote steeping lapse rates and some destabilization
during the afternoon (with capes generally 500J/kg or less).
Rather strong southwest flow and deeper mixing may result in
some isolated stronger wind gusts in any storms that develop in
the afternoon. Note that the Storm Prediction Center has
outlined a marginal risk for severe storms across portions of
northern and western Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A widespread rainfall is expected late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, which will continue to improve the long term
drought.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
An upper level trough over the southern Hudson Bay will direct a
band of Gulf moisture towards the Saint Lawrence Valley and into
Maine late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Convergence and moisture
pooling ahead of a cold front is expected. As the cold front
moves south into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday,
south winds increase, enhancing isentropic lift as the warmer,
moist air moves over the low level frontal surface. At the same
time, the left exit region of a strong subtropical jet streak
will approach the area Wednesday evening, while the right
entrance region of a weak polar jet streak to the north remains
over the area. This will cause the precipitation shield to
expand and intensity to increase, with moderate rainfall rates
possible. Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The heaviest
QPF appears focused over the northern and central portion of the
forecast area where the most persistent rain band will develop.
Areas farther to the south will have less QPF as they remain
within the drier warm sector longer before the strengthening
surface low reflection of the subtropical jet moves over these
areas Wednesday night, leading to a transient burst of light to
moderate rain. Elevated instability and strong dynamics may lead
to a thunderstorm over the coastal waters and coastal areas
Wednesday night. A general 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected
across northern and central areas, with around or just below an
inch for Bangor and Downeast Maine. This rainfall will add to
the short term rainfall surplus, helping to mitigate the long
term drought. No significant flooding issues are expected, but
some ponding of water is possible, particularly where heavier
rainfall rates occur. Rain will taper off early Thursday with
some lingering showers possible and partial clearing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...VFR. W wind G25 kt.

Tonight...VFR. W to SW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday...VFR, except MVFR possible in afternoon showers and
isolated/scattered thunderstorms at the Aroostook terminals. S
to SW wind 10 to 20 kt with gusts 25 kt. Low level wind shear
expected.

Tuesday night...MVFR, IFR possible KBGR/KBHB. S to SW wind 10
to 15 kt.

Wednesday...Predominantly MVFR with areas of VFR and IFR. -RA.
S winds 5 to 15 kts, strongest south where gusts up to 25 kts
are possible. LLWS possible, mainly south.

Wednesday night: IFR or lower with -RA/RA. S winds 5 to 15 kts.
LLWS possible, mainly south.

Thursday to Thursday night: MVFR with -SHRA, becoming VFR. NW
winds 5 to 15 kts, becoming light in the evening.

Friday: VFR, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals.
Showers, mainly north. Slight (10 percent) chance of a
thunderstorm. Any storms may contain small hail and briefly
gustier winds. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Friday night: VFR. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of -SHRA. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Tuesday night for the
the coastal waters from Stonington to Eastport out to 25 NM. A
Gale Watch is in effect Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
for the open water 25 NM to 60 NM offshore.

Small Craft Advisory winds and seas are expected to continue
over the outer waters through Wednesday night. Seas fall below
advisory levels on Thursday. SCA conditions are possible again
Friday into Saturday. Conditions are expected to decrease below
gales over the offshore waters from 25 to 60nm Wednesday and
remain below gales, although there is a chance (30 percent) of
a brief gale Wednesday night as winds aloft increase for a few
to several hours. Rain Wednesday night and patchy fog is
expected to reduce visibility at times. An isolated thunderstorm
is also possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWD/MWS
AVIATION...TWD/MWS