192
FXUS61 KCAR 011804
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
104 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Started rain earlier on Monday.
- Increased rain chances across the North Tuesday night and
  Wednesday.
- Increased QPF across the north Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances return Monday and remain into early next week,
but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable
drought relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain chances return Monday and remain into early next week, but
very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable
drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east, bringing a
frontal system that stalls over the northeast Monday into Monday
night. Small shortwave on Monday results a chance for light
showers in the north beginning Monday evening, continuing into
Tuesday. The question will be how far south the warm front will
push the rain showers to. As of this update, ensembles keep the
majority of the rain north of the Bangor Region. Very minimal
accumulation with these showers.

Tuesday-Wednesday a cutoff low slowly exits northeast into the
Maritimes allowing for deep layered ridging to build into the
region. At the surface, a back door cold front sinks southwest
into southwestern Maine Tuesday and Tuesday night before lifting
back northeast as a warm front Wednesday. Low level
frontogenetic forcing to the north/east of this boundary will
allow for a widespread stratiform rain mainly north of a Bangor-
Machias line, with moderate rainfall possible for areas mainly
along and north of a Greenville-Millinocket-Danforth line. From
MOnday-Wednesday a quarter to a half of an inch of rain is
possible along and north of a Mount Katahdin to Amity line, with
lessor amounts further south, ranging down to at most a few
hundreths of an inch across Mount Desert Island.

The region should see a lull in precipitation Wednesday night
and Thursday morning with the region under the axis of the
aforementioned deep layered ridge, before there is another
chance of rainfall Thursday afternoon, depending on the timing
of a slow moving system for late this week/early next week.

The models remain in disagreement on the timing and track of a
cutoff low that tracks from the Great Lakes some time
Wednesday-Thursday as it slowly lifts northeast, with another
closed low developing to the west Friday/Friday night then
lifting into the Maritimes in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. This
second closed low could also potentially interact with another
closed low off the southeastern then mid-Atlantic seaboard
adding even more moisture and energy to the system.

There is the potential that this storm system could bring a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region
from late this week into early next week. There is also the
potential for at least coastal areas to see strong gusty winds
with this system as well, with some signs that this could evolve
into a southeaster at some point. However, the certainty in
this happening is relatively low at this time - as one of the
things models do the least well is handle the evolution of
closed lows
- and the forecast from late Thursday-Sunday is dependent on 2
to 3 of these features.

Given this uncertainty, it is to soon to specify what if any
impacts could occur from these multiple closed lows late this
week and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight-Monday...Mainly VFR for all terminals with possible
MVFR Monday afternoon. LLWS for all terminals except BHB
tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday night...MVFR in rain showers mainly in the north. VFR
elsewhere. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals
and possible at southern terminals. LLWS possible Tuesday
night. NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning: VFR.

Thursday afternoon-Friday: MVFR or lower possible. S winds
G15-20KT possible Thursday afternoon. LLWS possible Thursday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains for this afternoon into early
this evening. Winds will gradually decrease throughout the rest
of tonight and into Monday night.

From Tuesday-Friday winds sustained winds should be 15 kt or
less and seas 4 ft or less over all waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM