472
FXUS64 KSHV 201135
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
635 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

 - Gradual warming will bring the Ark-La-Tx back above 80 degrees
   by midweek, with no end in sight.

 - Persistant dry air will continue to worsen drought and fire
   weather concerns through the next week.

 - The current Fire Danger Statement is now in place until at
   least 7 pm CDT Friday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An upper-level ridge is continuing to build over the Southern
Plains, which will keep temperatures rising into the 80s for much
of the area by Wednesday. The ridge axis is expected to shift
slightly west as it intensifies and will keep upper-level flow
northerly and dry. The dry air combined with broad subsidence from
the ridge will keep skies mostly clear and free of rain through
the long-term period. The recent NBM has pulled back max
temperatures a bit for the extended period, keeping things in the
low to mid 80s compared to previous runs continuing to climb into
the upper 80s by the end of the week. Should this relatively
cooler solution verify, temperatures by Friday will be back to
5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Despite warmer temperatures, the current airmass is likely to stay
noticeably dry. Long-range models are keeping surface winds
easterly for much of this week which will keep dry, continental
air moving into the region. The earliest change to this would be
late this weekend with the development of a broad surface high
near the Mid-Atlantic states, which would possibly shift winds
southerly if the edges of the high can reach far enough southwest.
This will be something to watch over the coming days, as this is
looking past the current forecast period.

The dryness will continue to put fire weather at the forefront of
the forecast this week. The ongoing Fire Danger Statement has been
extended through this Friday night, as conditions are likely to
remain steady through the week. Many counties and parishes have
burn bans in place due to the persistant drought and extremely dry
fuels present from lack of substantial rain. The public is
encouraged to avoid any outdoor burning or activities that could
spark wildfires for the foreseeable future.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

For the 20/12z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions with passing
SCT mid & high clouds during the period. Surface Winds will range
from light/variable ENE between 5-7 mph during the period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this week in the event of
wildfire development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  51  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  46  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  78  48  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  78  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  80  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20