624
FXUS64 KLCH 020602
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a chilly weekend the airmass overhead moderates quickly
  through early portions of this week as onshore flow becomes
  reestablished and moisture increases.

- Rain chances increase Tuesday thru Wednesday night with another
  cold front passing by Thursday AM. No hard freeze or winter
  weather conditions are anticipated.

- Thursday will be cooler, around normal temps, but Friday and
  into the weekend, temps in the 60s will return.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Early morning temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 30s
beneath clear skies and near calm winds as surface high pressure,
currently located just offshore of Cameron, continues to drift
southward into the Gulf. While most guidance indicates minimum
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the CWA, efficient
radiational cooling may allow temperatures to fall below freezing
across much of the area. Brief hard freeze conditions cannot be
ruled out across areas north of Highway 190 early Monday morning.

The surface high will meander over the northern Gulf waters before
shifting eastward toward Florida by Tuesday. As the high departs,
low level flow will veer southerly with gradually increasing wind
speeds. The return of southerly flow will support modest moisture
advection and a continued warming trend. Temperatures will
gradually moderate but are expected to remain near to slightly
below climatological normals through midweek.

A cold front is forecast to approach and move through the forecast
area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Warm air advection and
increasing moisture ahead of the front will support scattered to
numerous showers. Limited instability is expected, favoring
primarily rain with only isolated thunderstorms possible. Current
rainfall forecasts range from approximately 0.25 to 0.50 inches,
with locally higher amounts possible. Shower activity will
diminish Wednesday as the front moves offshore and surface high
pressure builds into the region, allowing cooler and drier air to
return.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Cooler and drier conditions will persist into Thursday as surface
high pressure remains over the region. By Friday, the high will
shift into the Gulf, allowing southerly flow to become
reestablished across the area. This pattern will support a gradual
warming trend, with temperatures moderating Friday and increasing
to near, then above, climatological normals through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Light and variable winds will continue through the overnight
hours. Patchy ground fog may develop at KBPT, with guidance
suggesting potential MVFR visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. On Monday, surface high pressure will
continue to sink into the Gulf, with southerly to southwesterly
winds gradually increasing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure will bring generally light winds to area waters
into Monday morning. The only marine concern will be low water
conditions in coastal areas tonight into early tomorrow due to low
astronomical tides.

Onshore flow should pick up a bit Monday evening as a shortwave
trough approaches the area. This disturbance will bring showers and
a few thunderstorms to area waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
with breezy northerly winds to follow as the disturbance exits.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Starting Monday, high pressure moves to the east with a fetch of
warm, moist air expected to move back into the region. Rain
chances return Tuesday and hang around into Wednesday as a frontal
boundary slowly moves into the southeast US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  46  66  40 /   0   0  80  60
LCH  63  51  67  48 /   0   0  50  80
LFT  63  47  69  46 /   0   0  30  90
BPT  65  52  68  47 /   0   0  60  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST today for
     GMZ430-432.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87