044
FXUS63 KSGF 060751
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow warming trend through the week.

- Prolonged rain chances beginning midweek through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Surface high pressure sits directly overhead early this morning,
with calm winds being reported across the majority of the area.
Clear skies and low temperatures into the mid to upper 30s may allow
for some patchy frost, though this airmass is pretty dry, so we`re
not expected to cool to saturation in most areas. Winds remain calm
through the day, but plenty of sunshine and deep high pressure will
help us warm into the upper 60s to around 70.

A band of precipitation is expected to set up in western Iowa
extending down into central Missouri tonight,  but all signs point
to this activity remaining north of the area. It reaches it
southernmost extent after midnight, and may sweep some snow flurries
across west-central MO through Tuesday morning (again, north of our
CWA). Lows are a little bit warmer than last night, mostly in the
low 40s with some high-30s still hanging around in the
north/east/low-lying areas.

High pressure pushes east tomorrow, and we return to southerly flow.
The pressure gradient also starts to tighten up with the incoming
low from the west, so we`ll have a modest southeasterly breeze. More
cloud cover begins filtering in, so we won`t have as much sun as
recent days, and we`ll only warm into the 60s. But, the cloud cover
overnight will help lows to stay up in the 40s (and near 50 to the
west).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

On Wednesday, as the primary upper level wave begins to descend
south from Canada, a shortwave ejects out of Oklahoma. This
shortwave arrives first, and may produce some isolated showers along
the far northern fringes of the area. Southerly winds increase
significantly, especially west of Hwy 65, where gust speeds may
reach 30-35 mph. We`ll have a bit of sun peeking through Wednesday,
but the strong WAA will primarily be to blame for highs reaching
into the low 70s. Lows will be warm too, remaining in the 50s.

The main front approaches from the northwest sometime Thursday, and
then...stops. It appears to stall out somewhere in eastern
Kansas/western Missouri, parking our area in the warm sector over
several days. Warm air and moisture will continue streaming
into the area through late week and the weekend, and rain
chances up to 50- 70% will exist each day. We`ll also continue
warming up a little each day, with widespread highs near 80 by
Saturday. It does not appear there is a simple frontal-passage
resolution to this setup in the short term, but rather the
overall pattern becomes very chaotic behind this wave, and how
things progress into early next week are unclear at this time.

WPC has highlighted the northwestern portion of the CWA (generally
north of I-44) in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall (risk of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance) Thursday and Friday. The
CPC 8-14 day outlook indicates a slight lean toward above normal
precipitation and temperatures, and the hazards outlook indicates a
moderate risk for heavy precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions expected. Clear skies, light and variable winds,
clear visibility.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson