552
FXUS63 KEAX 012002
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
202 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to Severe Storms Monday Late Afternoon and Evening

- Additional Rain Chances Middle of This Week

- Seasonable Temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mid to upper-level synoptic pattern features an amplifying ridge
axis that is currently over the Central Plains and moving eastward,
being driven by a deep trough digging toward the Four Corners Region
this afternoon. For the lower Missouri River Valley for the
remainder of Sunday, a few breaks in cloud cover may be possible
with mid-level AVA generating some subsidence. However, flow around
700mb continues to bring in plenty of moisture, which will limit the
ability to completely clear the overcast and misty conditions across
the forecast area. The ridge axis races east of the Mississippi
River Valley overnight, as the trough acquires a negative tilt and
lifts out of the Four Corners Region toward the Rockies. Mid-level
height falls will extend eastward into the lower Missouri River
Valley. The strong dCVA into the Front Range and High Plains will
foster lee cyclogenesis for most of Monday, tracking a strong
cyclone into the Central Plains. Low-level flow from central Kansas
into the Mississippi River Valley will turn southerly, and increase
theta-e transport, with a notable jump in dewpoint temperatures by
Monday afternoon. For our forecast area, this will start to push a
warm front northward, bringing with it increasing isentropic upglide
and perhaps some enhanced mid-level lift from any vorticity lobes
that eject eastward into the central CONUS. For eastern Kansas to
Central Missouri, this will likely keep dense cloud cover, unless
something Sunday evening helps to drastically clear it. The better
clearing within this synoptic pattern will be in south-central
Kansas and regions southward where a more notable EML is noted.
Scattered showers are likely along the nose of stronger isentropic
upglide Monday morning through early afternoon. At this time,
instability does not look overly impressive, with HREF mean MUCAPE
values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg. However, depending on how
faster the 500mb trough axis moves, mid-level cooling may help to
steepen mid-level lapse rates by the early afternoon, which may
produce some thunderstorm activity. An isolated severe storm prior
to 20z is possible if there is any kind of mesoscale clearing that
can help locally destabilize the boundary layer, as deep layer shear
with strong mid-level let jet will be present (0-6km bulk shear
values above 40kts possible over the warm sector). But, overall
forcing will be minimal and the lack of insolation may inhibit deep
convection.

Late afternoon, the rate of mid-level height falls increases, along
with convergence along the deepening cyclone and its trailing cold
front. Continued theta-e advection will provide more moisture into
the area, and will help bring in a somewhat more unstable airmass
that could see SBCAPE attempt to near 1000 J/kg. The instability is
the greatest source of uncertainty with how the severe threat will
play out for eastern Kansas and western Missouri late afternoon
Monday and through the evening. If there is any kind of localized
subsidence prior to sunset that destabilizes the boundary layer with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, mid-level cooling that steepens lapse
rates will readily increase CAPE for SB and ML parcels. Throw in the
increasing forcing and deep layer bulk shear magnitudes upwards of
50kts, storms will have what they need to go severe, even if their
tops are under 35kft. If the boundary layer does not rapidly
destabilize, it may take a longer for activity to develop, but there
should be enough instability and lift to help some kind of organized
activity get going, with the uncertainty being how long it could
remain strong. If there is enough destabilization early, storms
could develop over east-central Kansas as early as 20z, and then
move eastward. CI may have to wait until after 23z though. The
evolution of storm mode, specifically the timing of it, will
determine the most prevalent storm hazards, along with its
longevity. If discrete storms are able to initiate in eastern Kansas
and western Missouri in the warm-sector with enough ML CAPE, a
supercell storm mode is possible given the strong vorticity in the
lower to middle portions of the troposphere. Current CAM hodographs
demonstrate notable cyclonic curvature in the 1-4km layer, and could
make an argument that it extends up to 6km. While storms may not be
as tall as warm-season cores, the shear environment could play a
role in mitigating instability insufficiency. Low-level SRH is set
to be quite robust within the region surface troughing working to
back surface winds, with 0-500m values above 100 m^2/s^2, and near
150-200 m^2/s^2 in the 0-1km layer. If 0-3km CAPE values can reach
above 50 J/kg, this should be enough to support low-level
mesocyclone that could present a tornado threat. The depth of the
storms likely limits their longevity. The wind threat with discrete
convection would likely be tied to any kind of rear-flank downdraft
development. This reflects the conditional threat for discrete
storms though. With the insufficient instability expected earlier in
the afternoon, this scenario will be difficult to realize. The more
likely scenario will be discrete convection developing in south-
central Kansas, then growing upscale into an MCS or QLCS along the
cold front through the evening, that then rolls into the area.
Through eastern Kansas, there should be just enough instability to
bring a strong line or clusters storms toward the KS-MO state line.
Normal MCS or QLCS wind threat will exist in this very favorable
deep layer shear environment, fostering the development of strong
cold pools and maintaining balance. With deep layer shear present on
both of sides of the boundary, and anticipated low-level jet, surges
within the line are possible that will help to enhance to winds. The
0-3km bulk shear will also being very strong, well above 30 kts even
into the warm-sector, along with enough 0-3km CAPE that could
promote mesovortex generation along surges that are oriented from
northwest to southeast, enhancing winds and developing brief a brief
tornado. Hail threat should be fairly minimal after upscale growth.
The first line should start to push east of the forecast area by
04z, but another vorticity lobe and dCVA may happen behind the cold
front that could result in post-frontal convection that may goes
past 06z before it exits into eastern Missouri. Depending on their
inflow bases, uncertain how much a severe threat these storms would
pose.

As for hydrology, QPF amounts are generally around 1.00 for an event
total, with HREF probability matched mean values showing pockets of
1.75 in south of Hwy. 36. With the strong shear and progressive
nature of this trough, storms should be moving at a faster enough to
speed to limit training, therefore limiting flooding concerns.
Heavier rainfall over urbanized areas may result in elevated levels
of local creeks and streams.

The forecast for Tuesday and beyond will largely be tied to how the
mid-level trough wraps up and if it becomes a closed-low system,
with another trough potentially ejecting out of the Rockies. Current
deterministic guidance depicts the wrap-around precipitation shield
just missing our forecast area, remaining in southern Iowa and
moving northeastward. Ensemble probabilities for measurable
precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.
Northerly flow will help keep high temperatures in the lower to mid
60s, with only upper 50s possible near the Iowa-Missouri state
line.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Moisture continues to push into the area and will allow cloud
cover to continue. There may be some breaks this afternoon but
bases will still be between 1 to 2 kft AGL. Most of the rain
shower and thunderstorm activity Monday will hold off until
after 18z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull