336
FXUS63 KTOP 051107
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
507 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More seasonable temperatures today and tomorrow before another
brief cold spell arrives for Sunday.

- Still very low rain chance Saturday evening across northeast
  KS, but otherwise no significant precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

We continue to see broad upper troughing across much of the CONUS,
while a ridge axis is centered off the West Coast. This pattern will
persist throughout the next week. As a result, northwest flow will
be maintained over the Plains, with multiple fast-moving, low-
amplitude shortwaves moving through this flow.

Right now, southerly flow has returned behind our most recent
system. This will help temperatures moderate back to near average
today. A weakening cold front moves through this evening but has
little impact on temperatures Saturday. By Saturday evening, the
next shortwave will move across the Midwest, with a surface low
moving across southern Nebraska. This track will keep most
precipitation to our north, though can`t completely rule out some
brief rain across northeast Kansas. The main impact though will be a
stronger cold front pushing through the area, making Sunday another
day where temperatures struggle to get back to freezing.

We`ll see a brief warmup next week as shortwave ridging builds in
ahead of the next trough. The track of the 850 mb low will be
favorable for a surge of warmer air with downsloping off the
Rockies, giving good confidence in temperatures rising into the 50s
Tuesday. Behind this system, we should see a return of cooler
temperatures for the second half of the week. Exactly how cool is a
question though, as ensemble spread quickly increases with the
re-deepening of the eastern CONUS trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Some IFR stratus is currently beginning to develop in far
south-central KS and move northward, but a majority of model
guidance keeps it well south of the main TAF sites this morning, so
will maintain a VFR forecast. Winds stay southwesterly around 5-10
kts today before weakening below 5 kts overnight. Towards the very
end of the period Saturday morning, could see some patchy fog begin
to develop, but confidence in this is very low for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese