870
FXUS63 KTOP 011929
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong system brings the potential for severe thunderstorms
  Monday late afternoon into the evening.

- More seasonable temperatures build in Tuesday through the end of
  the week with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent trough across the
western CONUS with broad southwesterly flow stretching from the
Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains. An expansive area of low
clouds remains in place across the region this afternoon, which has
limited heating and only expect a couple additional degrees of
warming. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and
weak instability this afternoon and evening, which could lead to the
development of isolated showers. The aforementioned western trough
advances east tonight into Monday with a deepening low across the
High Plains tightening the pressure gradient. Abundant cloud
cover and strengthening boundary-layer winds will keep
temperatures mild overnight, with lows around 60.

A lead shortwave ejects northeast across the Central Plains Monday
morning with guidance in decent agreement in this wave leading to a
round of showers and storms that moves from west to east across the
forecast area through early afternoon. Severe weather is not expected
with this round, although precipitation could bring gusty winds to
the surface. Stronger forcing comes through the day Monday as the
longwave trough approaches and low-level flow increases. Southerly
winds will increase to near advisory levels with gusts 35-40 MPH
through the day. The progression of the initial round of precipitation
will impact when and where convection develops during the late
afternoon and evening and how it evolves into the early overnight
hours. Cloud cover is expected to hold across most of the forecast
area with the most likely location for clearing and more substantial
destabilization across south central Kansas into Oklahoma, near
the dryline. Convective initiation is favored in this location
during the late afternoon before rapid upscale growth appears
likely given the strong forcing. Fast storm motions (40-50 MPH
to the northeast) will bring this activity into northeast
Kansas fairly quickly during the evening hours, most likely as a
line or broken line. Deep shear magnitudes are robust, but
hodographs are rather disorganized with the most impressive
shear limited to the lowest 2km. With that, considerable 0-1km
storm relative helicity values (250-300 m2/s2) will favor
rotation in storms, either in embedded supercells or as
mesovorticies along the leading edge of a line. Uncertainty
remains regarding intensity of storms, but the strength of the
low-level shear does lead to the potential for damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes. PWATs of 1.5-1.75" supports
efficient rainfall rates as well, but the progressive nature of
storms should limit the flooding potential. The most likely
timeframe for severe weather is 5-11 PM before the strongest
storms exit the area to the east.

The closed low is progged to slow in its eastward progression for
Tuesday, with wrap-around precipitation and cloud cover lingering
through the day before the closed low pulls farther away. Another
compact shortwave follows closely behind on Thursday, but moisture
may be limited and leads to only low chances for precipitation.
Temperatures become more seasonable Tuesday through the end of the
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Cigs have largely become MVFR and think MVFR cigs will dominate
the period, although intermittent scattering of the low cloud
deck is possible. Winds increase from the south overnight and
become gusty Monday morning with gusts around 30kts expected
through the day. A line of showers and storms is progged to move
into terminals late in the period. Input a best guess on timing
and impacts, but coverage and timing is varied among guidance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan