141
FXUS63 KDDC 060451
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 9pm CDT Today for
  locations west of Ness City to Dodge City to Ashland.

- Unseasonably Warm Temperatures can be expected through mid
  week.

- A slight chance for light rain showers Tuesday night but the
  chance for accumulating rainfall will be on the increase
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level ridge was located over the
western United States with a northwest flow present across the
Rockies and Central United States. Embedded within this
northwesterly flow were several weak upper level waves rotating
around the upper ridge axis. One upper wave was located in
Central Canada, while another appears to be moving onto the
coast of British Columbia..

As the first upper wave exits Canada and crosses the Northern
Plains on Monday, a surface cold front will sag south into
northern Kansas by midday, where it will become nearly
stationary. Models still all are in decent agreement on the
position of this surface boundary, along with the unseasonably
warm temperatures that will be present south of the boundary
across southwest Kansas during the afternoon. Limited
moisture/cloud cover are expected during the day and given the
forecast mixing depth along with gusty southwest winds
developing during the afternoon the NBM guidance for afternoon
temperatures still seems on track. In a few locations these
temperatures may even be a bit too cool across extreme southwest
Kansas where lower dewpoints will be possible. Given this will
keep temperatures around the NBM forecast with highs in the mid
to upper 70s, but there is a 30-50% chance for highs to reach
80 degrees or warmer west of Highway 83.

As mentioned in the previous section... surface dewpoints will
be at least as low as currently forecast. Based on this and
gusty afternoon southwest winds the previous shifts were on
track issuing a Red Flag Warning along and west of Highway 283
for Monday afternoon. Humidities should easily fall back into
the 10 to 15 percent range as wind gusts exceed 30 mph at times,
based on gusts via momentum transfer from the BUFR soundings.

On Tuesday, any cooler air that does invade portions of western
Kansas behind this cold front will erode as the westerly flow
improves and surface pressure falls along the lee of the
Rockies. Improving low level forcing along this easterly
Colorado surface trough and afternoon heating may give rise to a
few isolated thunderstorms as a weak upper level trough moves
from the Four Corners area toward the Central Rockies. Afternoon
instability along this boundary will be present, but moisture
will be lacking. Therefore, even if isolated to widely scattered
storms develop over eastern Colorado late in the day, these
storms will weaken after sunset and should become more isolated
if any do move across southwest Kansas Tuesday night as the
upper level trough passes.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue on Wednesday as
850mb temperatures climb into the 90th to 95th percentile late
in the day across far southwest Kansas. Gusty south winds will
develop in response to a deepening trough of low pressure over
the Rockies as a northern upper level trough/low crosses the
Northern Rockies and moves out into the Northern Plains. This
would easily support highs in the 80s, but we will be monitoring
a cold front as it moves south across Nebraska and into
northern Kansas late in the day. There still are some timing
issues with this cold front moving into the I-70 corridor on
Wednesday, but even accounting for the more progressive models
with the southward movement of this cold front, it appears that
highs in the mid 70s will be possible. Even these cooler
temperatures Wednesday afternoon are are around 10 degrees
above the seasonal normals for this time of year. South Central
Kansas will also be cooler, as the warmer air spreading east is
not expected to reach that far east given the south southeast
flow near the surface keeping the cooler air in this region
longer.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase during the last
half of the work week. As this cold front drops south across
southwest Kansas Wednesday night, the chances for precipitation
will begin to improve as the westerly flow from the weak upper
ridge begins to shift to the southwest due to an upper level low
approaching California and an upper trough developing over the
southwest United States. Initially, the chance for post-frontal
storms appear limited to mainly the I-70 corridor due to the
lift accompanying the northern upper level trough and track of
this northern wave. The better opportunity for measurable
precipitation across southwest Kansas will be on Thursday and
Friday given improving moisture...either from low level upslope
flow north of the boundary or from the Gulf as southerly winds
draw more humid air northward into Kansas. In addition to the
moisture return late week there will also be a better chance for
widespread lift developing near and north of this surface
boundary as subtle waves embedded in a developing southwest flow
approaches the area. Ensemble clusters all increase the
precipitable water values over southwest Kansas from around 80%
of normal on Thursday to greater than 95% of normal on Friday.
Given this moisture return along with the forecast lift
advertised at times from the ensemble clusters many areas
appear to have a good chance(40-60%) to see 24 hour rainfall
totals amounts of at around 0.15 or more by Friday evening,
especially locations east of highway 283.

This wet pattern appears that it may linger through the weekend
as an upper low/trough establishes itself over the southwest
United States. This should, fingers crossed, provide several
opportunities for some beneficial rainfall across southwest
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A low level jet will develop overnight as surface pressures
fall along the lee of the Rockies. Southwest winds at knots are
forecast to develop after through 12z to be around 40 knots in
the 1500-2000ft AGL level. The surface winds tonight will be
southeast at 10 to 15 knots but will increase to near 25 knots
between 15Z and 18Z today as the stronger winds in the boundary
layer mix down to the surface. These gusty winds will then
continue through 00Z Tuesday when the atmosphere begins to
decouple. BUFR soundings indicate VFR conditions are expected
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Short term models remain in good agreement with the surface
pressure gradient tightening early Monday and stronger boundary
layer winds will mix down to the surface by noon. This will
result in wind speeds at least as strong as what the NBM
suggests. The NBM may even be a little weak on the winds later this
afternoon given the good mixing potential that will exist and
the mixing depth forecast to be between the 850mb and 700mb
level. As a result of this will trend towards the highs (75th
percentile) on wind speeds during the afternoon. This forecast
easily supports wind gusts greater than 30 mph being possible at
times west of Highway 283. In addition to these gusty winds,
models for the past few runs also kept afternoon humidity values
in this area (west of HW 283) between 10 and 15%. However,
given the mixing potential it would not be surprising if
humidity values in a few locations bottom out near or just below
10% (especially in/near the Cimarron National Grasslands area).
These conditions Monday afternoon continue to easily support
critical fire weather conditions during the day west of a Ness
City to Dodge City to Ashland line. At this time the current
forecast does not support expanding this warning eastward, but
we will monitor this closely and expand eastward if needed.
Those bordering the Red Flag Warning area should pay special
attention to all updates.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert