851
FXUS63 KFSD 060544
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected for the week ahead
  with spotty chances for precipitation throughout mid-week.
  Better chances fall along the Missouri River Valley Monday and
  into northwest Iowa on Tuesday, both of which could be light
  snow or a rain/snow mix.

- Warmer days Wednesday and then Friday into the weekend. Will
  also be on the breezier side, resulting in areas of elevated
  fire danger. The weekend will see breezier conditions but also
  higher surface dew points.

- A potential pattern change late week into the weekend may
  bring better chances for precipitation to the area during this
  time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

After another breezy day, winds have been gradually relaxing
this evening and will continue to do so heading into daybreak
Monday. An area of low stratus has been creeping southward towards
the Highway-14 corridor this evening, and this combined with an area
of mid level clouds spreading into central and southeastern South
Dakota may help prevent maximum cooling from being realized for most
of the area. That said, only minor adjustments to the
temperatures for tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 20s
north to lower to middle 30s south. A band of light rain and
snow looks to develop near and along the Missouri River Valley
overnight and spread southeastward, but a dry sub cloud layer
will initially prevent most of this from reaching the ground.

As we head into the daytime hours Monday, the column will saturate
and forcing will increase in the DGZ and allow for the
precipitation to reach the ground. This will likely be the form
of snow or a rain/snow mix at first, turning to a rain/snow mix
if not already, and then turning to rain over mainly northwest
Iowa by the afternoon. Even as temperatures warm, snow will
last a bit longer than you might expect given the air
temperatures due to wet bulbing. Precipitation will taper off
through the afternoon as forcing weakens and dry air wins out
again. All told, snow accumulations are expected to be very
light given the relatively mild temperatures and higher April
sun angle, a few tenths of an inch at best focused over south-
central South Dakota where the snow will be co-located with the
coldest temperatures. Otherwise, Monday will be a chilly day
overall with highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 30s
north to lower 40s south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A quick shot of mid level frontal forcing dives south through the
Missouri River Valley later tonight into Monday morning. Fairly
strong forcing within and just below the dgz as well as some very
weak instability just above the front should allow for a band of
rain and snow to develop. For now amounts look very light as the
forcing moves through fairly quickly.

Monday should prove to be a chilly day with northerly flow and quite
a bit of mid and high level cloudiness. Highs generally in the 30s
closer to highway 14 with 40s near and south of I-90.

A weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday and bring a quick
shot of scattered rain and snow showers. As the wave moves through
mid level warm air advection increases, especially Tuesday afternoon
and evening near and east of I-29. Given the strength of the warm
advection and the weak elevated instability a few locations could
see a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation. Will need to keep an
eye on surface temperatures as parts of southwest MN could sneak
into the lower 30s which might introduce a little light freezing
rain. Overall in that Monday into Tuesday night time frame a quick
inch or so of snow will be possible near KSUX into northeast NE.

Additional weak upper level support coupled with weak instability
will bring another shot for precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with some chances lingering into Thursday. Temperatures
will be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and 50s on
Thursday.

The focus continues to be Friday into the weekend as upper level
flow turns more southwesterly allowing better low and mid level
moisture to transport northward. This brings an increased chance for
rain and possibly a few thunderstorms during this time. Will
continue to see a 40 to 60 percent chance for precipitation during
this time. Ensemble output still indicating quite a few members
supporting a half an inch to an inch of rain over this time with the
higher amounts and better probabilities for an inch or more across
northwest IA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Patchy areas of stratus are moving into southwest Minnesota to
start the period, and additional areas will move into parts of
eastern South Dakota heading into the daylight hours Monday.
Confidence has increased enough to include a brief period of this
MVFR stratus to impact KHON for a couple of hours later this
morning, but doesn`t look to quite make it as far south as KFSD at
this time.

A band of light rain and snow showers will develop across the
Missouri River Valley heading into the daytime hours today, bringing
locally MVFR conditions including at KSUX early this afternoon. This
band of precipitation will fade through the mid to late afternoon.
Winds today won`t be as strong as they have been the past couple of
days, gusting up to 15-20 kts out of the north-northeast this
afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Samet
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Samet