638
FXUS63 KDVN 012003
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
203 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A large storm system will move through the Midwest the first
  half of the week. Behind the system, spotty rain showers will
  be possible for the second half of the work week.

- Although cooler by mid/late week, temperatures will continue
  to average above normal for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Monday: Mild and quiet conditions will continue
through the rest of today with highs in the 60s and steady
southeast winds of ~10-20 mph. Heading into tonight, a strong
area of low pressure developing in the Central Plains will lead
to increasing southerly flow aloft across the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley region. This will be accompanied by lower
tropospheric moisture and warm air advection, which could
provide enough lift to kick off isolated showers late tonight
into Monday AM, most favored north of Highway 34 (20-50%). The
increase in low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the 50s
to low 60s will lead to a northward expansion of low stratus
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tonight into Monday.
With ceiling heights likely to be under 1000 ft AGL at times,
occasional drizzle is possible Monday AM.

As the surface low strengthens to ~995mb across South Dakota on
Monday, the pressure gradient will tighten locally and lead to
increasing southeast winds, gusting up to 25-30 mph. It will be
another mild day on Monday with highs in the low to upper 60s;
dropped forecast temps several degrees below the NBM due to the
widespread low clouds expected across the area. Rain will
become more likely later Monday afternoon into the evening
across the western to northwest sections of the outlook area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Monday Night through Wednesday
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing
some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures.

Although there are differences between the global models, they have
been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well
to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than
normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions.
Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being
Monday night into Tuesday.

The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with
the surge of moisture from the Pacific along with some from the
Gulf. The model PWATs with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which
would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also
yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with
any thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be possible since we`ll be in the warm sector of
the storm. The main severe risk on Monday/Monday night looks to
hold off to the southwest of our area, but SPC`s latest update
did push the Marginal Risk (level 1 or 5) northeastward to
include portions of far NE Missouri. Isolated damaging winds
appear to be the primary threat.

Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the
area on Wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible
the second half of the work week.

Temperatures will cool down by the middle to end of the week
but still average above normal for early November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Ceilings will deteriorate later this evening into tonight first
to MVFR and then IFR between 09-12Z/Mon. Not much rain is anticipated,
aside from isolated showers overnight and the potential for
some drizzle Monday AM. The IFR ceilings are expected to last
through Monday morning with southeast winds increasing to 15-25
kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...08/ZU
AVIATION...Uttech