263
FXUS63 KDVN 201738
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue this week
  and a 55% chance of continuing through the end of October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A shortwave is visible in water vapor imagery just to our south,
which has left a few lingering mid to high clouds over the area.
However, these clouds have had little impact on radiational cooling,
with much of the area already dropping into the low to mid 40s,
though cooler temperatures may be possible in poor drainage areas.
Despite the cool start to the day, today will be yet another day
basking under the influence of high pressure. Winds will be weak but
could support deep mixing, as was observed yesterday. If this
happens, temperatures could be a degree or two warmer than the
current forecast, which is in the low 70s.

Another shortwave will make its way along the edge of the ridge
Wednesday, though any impacts will be limited once more to an
increase in cloud cover due to weakening forcing and dry low levels.
Otherwise, the forecast remains quite similar to today, if not a
couple degrees warmer, as we continue in this pattern of pleasant
fall weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

By Thursday, ridge amplification will be underway. The high pressure
center will shift southward over the Great Lakes. As a result, highs
in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected. Occasional cloud chances
each day may help temper the gradual 1-2 degree increase each day.
However, while above normal temperatures are expected to continue
through the weekend, a warm and dry but dreary day may be in store
for at least part of the weekend as warm conveyor belt processes
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough may lead to increased cloud
cover.

However, there is sizable uncertainty regarding whether this
shortwave trough will impact the CWA and if so, when that would
occur. Guidance continues to be divided on the track and timing of
this trough, with the majority of models and ensembles favoring a
slower track with any impacts arriving Monday or later. The
exception to this is the GEFS and GFS, which favor a quicker
progression with the trough reaching the forecast area by Sunday. As
a result, while it appears likely that above normal temperatures
will continue, there is low confidence on whether we receive
measurable precipitation or continue with this stretch of dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure
sits across the area through the TAF period with winds switching
from southeasterly to southerly by 12 UTC Wednesday. Few to
scattered mid level clouds around 15 kft are possible after 06
UTC as a shortwave passes to our south.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ellingworth
LONG TERM...Ellingworth
AVIATION...Cousins