944
FXUS66 KOTX 101159
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
459 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the
  weekend.

- Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon
  and evening.

- Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon
  with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley.

- Warming trend early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong ridging across the west-central CONUS will lead to
continued dry weather, breezy winds, and low humidity. Elevated
to critical fire weather conditions will persist through this
weekend, with warm to hot temperatures across the Inland
Northwest into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday: A strong ~599dm ridge building from the
Rockies to the central Plains through the weekend as a mid/upper
level shortwave slowly pivots and slides from coastal British
Columbia to Alberta. This will place a strengthening 500mb jet
streak across Washington and southern B.C. over the weekend.
Primary concern for sensible weather impacts from this pattern
will be the elevated to critical fire weather, with a
particular focus on Saturday. The increased rapid drying from
the passing shortwave and attendant dry cold front combined with
breezy surface winds will lead to critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central Washington, with elevated
conditions most elsewhere. The Okanogan Valley will be quite
susceptible in this regime, as southerly winds will likely
channel into the valley and be enhanced by diurnal upvalley
effects Saturday afternoon, leading to rapid spread behavior
with any new or existing fires. Otherwise, there remains a
low (10-15%) chance for a few stray sprinkles across the ID
Panhandle and SE Washington Friday night in the front`s warm
sector, with a brief increase in PWAT anomalies noted in this
region. Can`t completely rule out an elevated thunderstorm here
though confidence is even lower, with 12hr probabilities of
lightning from the NBM around 5%.

Monday through Thursday: Strong monsoonal ridging will remain
locked in across the west-central CONUS through most, if not all
of next week. During this timeframe several shortwaves will also
slide across southern British Columbia from the Pacific. Mostly
dry weather will likely continue to prevail, though EC Ensemble
indicates PWAT anomalies climbing between these two features to
around 125% to 175% across southeastern WA and ID Monday
through Wednesday. This could promote increased shower/thunderstorm
activity and also a bit more cloud cover in the region. 850mb
temps will remain quite high (mid to upper 20s C) so above
normal temperatures surface temps will continue, though cloud
cover could moderate the overall diurnal range.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Widespread VFR will persist. With a westerly
component to the winds across the region, there is a low chance
for wildfire smoke to impact visibilities. Otherwise, breezy
winds are expected through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        91  59  87  59  85  55 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  60  86  61  84  58 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        87  54  84  54  82  52 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       96  62  94  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       90  56  86  56  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      89  58  86  58  83  55 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        88  58  85  58  82  57 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     92  58  89  58  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      91  63  87  62  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           92  60  89  59  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...None.

&&

$$