867
FXUS66 KOTX 101809
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1109 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the
  weekend.

- Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon
  and evening.

- Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon
  with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley.

- Warming trend early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong ridging across the west-central CONUS will lead to continued
dry weather, breezy winds, and low humidity. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will persist through this
weekend, with warm to hot temperatures across the Inland
Northwest into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday: A strong ~599dm ridge building from the
Rockies to the central Plains through the weekend as a mid/upper
level shortwave slowly pivots and slides from coastal British
Columbia to Alberta. This will place a strengthening 500mb jet
streak across Washington and southern B.C. over the weekend.
Primary concern for sensible weather impacts from this pattern
will be the elevated to critical fire weather, with a
particular focus on Saturday. The increased rapid drying from
the passing shortwave and attendant dry cold front combined with
breezy surface winds will lead to critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central Washington, with elevated
conditions most elsewhere. The Okanogan Valley will be quite
susceptible in this regime, as southerly winds will likely
channel into the valley and be enhanced by diurnal upvalley
effects Saturday afternoon, leading to rapid spread behavior
with any new or existing fires. Otherwise, there remains a
low (10-15%) chance for a few stray sprinkles across the ID
Panhandle and SE Washington Friday night in the front`s warm
sector, with a brief increase in PWAT anomalies noted in this
region. Can`t completely rule out an elevated thunderstorm here
though confidence is even lower, with 12hr probabilities of
lightning from the NBM around 5%.

Monday through Thursday: Strong monsoonal ridging will remain
locked in across the west-central CONUS through most, if not all
of next week. During this timeframe several shortwaves will also
slide across southern British Columbia from the Pacific. Mostly
dry weather will likely continue to prevail, though EC Ensemble
indicates PWAT anomalies climbing between these two features to
around 125% to 175% across southeastern WA and ID Monday
through Wednesday. This could promote increased shower/thunderstorm
activity and also a bit more cloud cover in the region. 850mb
temps will remain quite high (mid to upper 20s C) so above
normal temperatures surface temps will continue, though cloud
cover could moderate the overall diurnal range.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Widespread VFR will persist with a westerly component
to the winds across the region. Localized smoke impacts are
possible from regional fires but confidence is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        57  90  59  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  89  59  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  87  54  84  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  96  62  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       55  89  56  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      56  88  58  85  57  85 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        55  88  57  84  57  82 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     58  92  57  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  90  62  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           60  92  58  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...None.

&&

$$