988
FXUS62 KCHS 011829
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
129 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Coastal Flooding Key Message was removed. All sections were
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy conditions with somewhat unsettled weather possible
  today into Monday. Mild temperatures expected through midweek,
  then a cold front should bring at least scattered showers on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy conditions with somewhat unsettled
weather possible today into Monday. Mild temperatures expected
through midweek, then a cold front should bring at least
scattered showers on Thursday.

Through Tonight: The risk for patchy showers will linger into
tonight as waves of weak isentropic ascent atop the inland wedge
and subtle coastal trough offshore persists. The risk for
anything measurable looks highest at the coast. Lows tonight
will range from the mid-upper 50s well inland to the mid-upper
60s at the beaches. Breezy conditions will linger at the
beaches.

This Week: A weak coastal trough is expected to set up along
the SC/GA coastline on Monday, however most shower activity
associated with the coastal trough should remain offshore. Some
shower activity along the GA coastline cannot be ruled out, and
some slight chance PoPs are in the forecast for Monday
afternoon. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain the
dominant synoptic feature across the region Monday into Tuesday
before shifting offshore into Wednesday. Aloft, a mid-level
trough will trek towards the southeastern states early in the
week, pushing into New England late week. A surface cold front
associated with this upper level feature will push across the
local forecast area late week.

Generally quiet weather is expected through midweek, with
temperatures warming into the lower 80s by midweek. Breezy
northeasterly wind gusts (20 to 25 mph) will continue as a
pinched pressure gradient prevails overhead. Forecast details
late in the week have lower confidence as there is model
differences in the timing and the location of the moisture axis
associated with the passing cold front. The current forecast
features slight chance to chance showers on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
01/18z TAFs:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 02/18z. Some patches of very light
showers will lurk around the terminals through much of the
period, but no meaningful impacts are expected. Gusty winds will
persist for the rest of the afternoon, diminish a bit overnight,
then become gusty again after daybreak Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy NE wind gusts around 20 to 25
mph will continue through Tuesday. Rain chances increase late
in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: A pinched gradient between inland high pressure
and a coastal trough offshore will keep northeast winds 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt in place over the nearshore and offshore
waters through tonight. Seas will average 4-7 ft nearshore
waters and 7-9 ft offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect. For Charleston Harbor, Winds have been around 20 kt
with gusts as high as 30 kt for much of the day. Winds are
forecast to relax somewhat this evening, likely settling back
down into the 15-20 kt range. Waves 2 ft will subside to 1-2 ft.
Small Craft Advisory continues for the Harbor until 7 PM.

Monday through Thursday: Frequent gusts into the 25-30 knot
range are expected into Monday, along with seas in the 5-7 ft
range. These conditions will support an extended period of Small
Craft Advisories. Winds should gradually diminish Tuesday into
Wednesday as the gradient relaxes. However, seas will remain
elevated enough to keep the advisories going through Tuesday
night. By Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will diminish even
more as a cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ360-362-
     364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ384.

&&

$$