519
FXUS62 KCAE 011832
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
132 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few light showers are possible today in the CSRA. Aviation
updated for 18z issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low
  through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers today, rain chances
remain low through midweek before a potentially more active
pattern for late week.

Some weak southwesterly isentropic lift associated with a
subtle shortwave moving across the gulf coast is producing a few
light showers this afternoon, overrunning out persistent surface
ridge. This, very, weak damming setup with relatively dry air at
the surface and continuing northeasterly surface flow will keep
cloudy skies and temps cooler today with highs only into the
upper 60`s and low 70`s. We then return to our typical high
pressure dominating pattern with warming temps, partly cloudy
skies, and breezy winds through Wednesday. A strong front will
approach the area Thursday as an sharp trough ejects out of the
central US and occludes before being picked up within the
northern stream jet. A corresponding surface low will develop
and drag a front through the area, with some notable moisture
return ahead of it. Rain chances however have steadily decreased
as this low is looking more likely to lift well north into the
Great Lakes, limiting the frontal and synoptic dynamic forcing
in our area. Some showers are still likely, but widespread heavy
rain and any severe thunderstorm threat has lessened across SC
and eastern GA.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

A few light scattered showers are moving through the CSRA and
into Aiken County. Inserted PROB30 through 22Z for AGS and DNL with
more isolated sprinkles or light rain possible behind the
initial wave. A TEMPO group was added to AIK through 22Z. Uncertain
if the light showers will persist into other TAF sites, but
will monitor.

Widespread cirrus remains across the region. Clouds may lower
due to moistening and rain especially in the CSRA, but VFR
conditions expected to remain. Activity through the day should
have little impact in the Midlands, so those TAF locations
should remain VFR and dry.

Winds remain generally around 6-10 knots with occasional gusts
near 20 knots. With the winds and clouds, fog will not be an
issue tonight. Gusts diminish this evening, with sustained
winds back down to around 5 knots. Winds should increase again
during the day tomorrow around 6-10 knots with occasional gusts
up to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early
next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...NS