726
FXUS62 KTAE 012012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters,
  winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the
  marine zones through Monday.

- Rain returns today with isolated thunderstorms possible closer
  to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Showers and storms across the Big Bend and offshore should
gradually diminish over the rest of the afternoon and evening.
Radar signatures show that there may be a wake low developing on
the back end of the stratiform rain shield, which is currently
over Liberty and Franklin Co. This feature may produce some
additional gusty winds near 30 to 40 mph even after the rain moves
out of the area. Otherwise, breezy ENE to E winds are expected to
continue into Monday due to a fairly tight pressure gradient over
the region. A few showers and storms will be possible Monday
afternoon across the eastern Big Bend, but widespread rain is not
expected. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with high temperatures Monday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Easterly winds are forecast to continue Tuesday before gradually
becoming southeasterly on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.
Rain chances increase Wednesday as a very moist air mass remains
overhead but begin to taper off as the front actually arrives
Thursday due to the parent low and upper support moving off to the
northeast. The already slow front will creep across the region
Thursday before a shortwave comes along Friday and sweeps this
front and a weaker reinforcing front through the region. The end
result of these weak fronts is high temperatures back into the 70s
and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs early this aftn except IFR at ECP and VLD at
times. Expect slow improvement to VFR generally from east to west
from late aftn into the evening. Then MVFR cigs develop overnight.
Confidence is low in timing the category transitions. E-NE winds
around 10 kts through the period with occasional gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions
through the rest of the weekend, as a Gulf low traverses east and
over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish
following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to
more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and
southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system
approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the
moment.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Breezy ENE to E winds over the next couple of days will keep
dispersions on the higher side despite fairly low mixing heights.
Showers and a few storms today should gradually diminish this
evening and tonight. Only a few showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Monday and Tuesday across the eastern Big Bend before rain
chances increase again Wednesday ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Despite areas of heavy rain this morning, the heaviest rain fell
along the coast and is not expected to produce river flooding.
After today, the next substantial chance for rain comes ahead of
the next front Wednesday. Additional isolated instances of
flooding will be possible, but widespread flooding or river
flooding are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  82  66  84 /  10  10   0  30
Panama City   64  81  66  82 /  20   0   0  10
Dothan        60  80  63  82 /  20   0   0  10
Albany        60  79  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  81  65  84 /  10  10   0  20
Cross City    67  82  67  84 /  40  40   0  40
Apalachicola  67  78  68  79 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST Monday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-
     752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield