478
FXUS62 KTAE 181336
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
936 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- There is a 30% chance for tropical development over the
  northeast Gulf over the weekend into early next week. It
  remains too early to determine specific impacts, although heavy
  rain appears likely in Florida. Please check future updates at
  hurricanes.gov as the tropical weather outlook is issued four
  times a day at 2 AM and PM and 8 AM and PM.

- There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall the next couple
  of days, mainly in our Florida counties. Do not drive through
  flooded roadways.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Minor tweaks made to the ongoing forecast this morning. Updated
the T, Td, RH, Sky and Wind grids to reflect current trends.
Otherwise, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible later this afternoon. Additionally, all eyes remain in
the Gulf to see how the cluster of storms evolve with time. Stay
alert to changing forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Our attention is on the eastern Gulf this weekend into early next
week. A broad upper-low over the eastern Gulf will pinwheel several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, regardless of
tropical development. As such, rain chances remain elevated through
at least Tuesday. Beyond that depends on whether a surface low is
able to form and consolidate into something tropical in the
northeastern Gulf. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle
90s for highs in the afternoons with middle to upper 70s for lows.

As the 00Z guidance is coming in, there has been a noticeable trend
in the global models to keep the H85 and H5 vorticity over the Gulf
waters. This is somewhat thanks to the band of strong to severe
thunderstorms that raked the Forgotten Coast Friday evening. The
vorticity from that appears to help nudge the broad H5 low over the
Gulf, allowing for possible tropical development late tonight into
Sunday. As of 2 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a
low 30% chance of development over the next 7 days and a low 10%
chance over the next 48 hours.

Something we`ll also have to monitor is the potential for whatever
develops stalling in the northeastern Gulf. This is thanks to a
broad H5 ridge over Colorado and another one in the western
Atlantic. Meanwhile, the H5 trough is forecast to be well north over
the Great Lakes. In essence, there`s not a whole lot to steer this
system one way or another as the two ridge fight for control. The
reason this is important is because areas near, and especially south
and east, the system could see the rain totals really pile up.
Either way, locally heavy rain is a concern with 1" to 3" forecast
for much of the region with higher totals of 5" or more possible,
especially for the Florida Big Bend. Even higher totals would be
possible if a tropical system were to develop and then stall over
the northeastern Gulf, which some ensembles are hinting at.

Again, we`re closely monitoring things in the eastern Gulf over the
coming days. While odds are low for tropical development as of 2 AM
this morning, it would behoove everyone to regularly check back for
updates through the weekend and pay particular attention to trends
in the tropical weather outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. For this
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop with the most likely areas to see storms around TLH and ECP.
VFR is expected outside of storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A broad surface low will attempt to form in the eastern Gulf over
the weekend, which is being monitored for possible tropical
development. Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds are
forecast through the weekend. If a system does develop, wind speeds
and seas could increase considerably over what is indicated in the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast over the
weekend into early next week and should limit fire weather
concerns through at least Tuesday. Good to excellent dispersions
are forecast across for our central timezone districts today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pinwheel
around a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf, regardless
of tropical development. Precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess
of 2" means any showers and storms over the weekend could easily
produce a quick 1" to 2" of rain with each storm. All told, 1" to 3"
of rain is forecast across much of the area, with locally higher
amounts exceeding 5" possible, especially across the Florida Big
Bend. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through at least
Tuesday.

Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with
the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to
river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers
are more susceptible to flooding, should significant rainfall
occur.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
Panama City   93  76  91  76 /  70  60  50  30
Dothan        94  73  92  73 /  50  50  50  30
Albany        94  73  93  74 /  50  40  50  20
Valdosta      94  73  92  73 /  50  10  30  10
Cross City    93  73  90  73 /  30  40  60  60
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese