767
FXUS62 KTBW 021243
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold conditions through early this morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of
  strong rip currents along area beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
Canadian high pressure continues to bring frigid conditions to
west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures of about 20 to
25 degrees below climatic normals persist across the region. A
freeze warning is in effect through early this morning for all
counties with the exception of Pinellas...and a cold weather
advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area. However, winds
have diminished and are generally 5 to 8 MPH across the
region...which makes the wind chill values about 3 to 5 degrees
below the ambient temperature.

The center of the area of high pressure will translate over the
Florida peninsula today and the airmass will begin to modify.
Although temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday, it will
overall remain quite cold with high temperatures only in the mid
to upper 50s under sunny skies. The only hazard that will persist
today will be a high risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Generally clear skies to start Monday night which will initially
create ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling to develop.
Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset dropping into the mid
to upper 30s during the evening hours. Some high cloudiness will
advect over the region overnight which will aid in only allowing
temperatures to hold steady or fall slowly the remainder of the
night. Overnight lows will drop generally into the 30 to 32 range
across the entire forecast area away from the coast with several
hours expected at or just below freezing. A freeze warning is in
effect for the nature coast and inland west central and southwest
Florida Monday night. Widespread frost is also expected.

The warm up will continue on Tuesday, but temperatures will again
remain below climatic normals with highs generally in the mid
60s. Temperatures across the entire forecast area are expected to
remain above freezing Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper
30s across the nature coast...the upper 30s to around 40
central...and lower to mid 40s south.

The area of high pressure will finally shift east of Florida on
Wednesday as another cold front approaches north Florida late in
the day. Increasing cloudiness with high temperatures in the
upper 60s north...lower to mid 70s central and south.

The cold front will push across the forecast area Wednesday night
and early Thursday with showers moving across the region ahead of
the front, with the highest pops north. Drier cooler air will
advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10 to 12
degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing
temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night. A secondary
dry cold front will push across the forecast area on Saturday
which will reinforce the cool dry air over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds out of the north
generally below 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
Winds and seas continue to subside, although seas remain rather
elevated due to conditions over the past 24 to 36 hours.
Conditions will gradually improve today and Monday night as the
center of the high builds over the waters with relatively light
winds developing. An approaching cold front mid week will cause
winds to veer to the south and southwest. The front will push
across the waters Wednesday night and early Thursday with winds
increasing out of the northwest in the wake of the front.
Cautionary and possible advisory level winds will develop on
Thursday, with the winds subsiding Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
The dry air over the region will allow minimum relative humidity
values to drop below critical values across much of the forecast
area which will create elevated fire weather conditions. However
winds will be less than 15 MPH. A bit of moisture recovery across
northern areas on Tuesday, but minimum relative humidity values
will drop below critical levels central and south...however, winds
again are expected to remain below critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  37  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  60  36  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  56  33  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  57  39  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  55  30  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  56  41  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Polk-Sumter.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson