007
FXUS62 KTBW 051158
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
658 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures continue into the weekend.

- Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next
  week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR, rain-free conditions and south-southwest winds around 8-12
knots with some higher gusts expected through 00Z, then becoming
light and variable overnight. Models are hinting at some early
morning low clouds and FG/BR, so will cover this with BKN010 and
some VSBY restrictions down to 4 SM in BR for now and will
reassess through the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida
peninsula today with continued partly cloudy skies and warm
temperatures. Boundary layer winds will shift to the south to
southwest advecting warm moist air across the region. Conditions
will become favorable for areas of fog to develop Friday night,
which will be locally dense. The fog will lift by mid morning on
Saturday.

Over the weekend, the U/L ridge will be suppressed south and east
of the region as a mean broad trough develops over the eastern
half of the U.S., which will gradually sink south over the Gulf
and Florida. An associated cold front over the southeast U.S. will
also gradually sink south across the Florida peninsula late in
the weekend, with an increasing chance of showers on Saturday and
Saturday night...and showers and a chance of thunderstorms Sunday
and Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest
Florida in the wake of the cold front Monday and Monday night with
drier cooler air advecting over the area on gusty north to
northwest winds. The area of high pressure will hold over the
region through mid week.

With the U/L trough/lower heights still over the region next week,
temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above climatic
normals with highs in the upper 60s north to the upper 70s
south...and lows in the 40s north, mid 50s central, and around 60
to the lower 60s south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters today and Saturday with
winds and seas below cautionary levels. A cold front will push
across the waters late in the weekend with winds shifting to the
north/northwest in the wake of the front and may approach advisory
levels for 12 to 24 hours. Winds and seas will subside Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  69  80  67 /   0  10  40  50
FMY  83  67  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  84  66  83  66 /   0  10  40  40
SRQ  79  68  80  67 /   0  10  20  30
BKV  83  63  80  60 /  10  20  50  60
SPG  78  70  78  68 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle