919
FXUS61 KOKX 021722
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1222 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No notable changes to the forecast have been made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday.

2) An arctic front will bring a chance for light snow Friday
and another shot of frigid air for the weekend.

3) Brief minor tidal flooding for this morning`s high tide cycle for
a few areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold this week with temps generally remaining blw freezing. No
advisories for temps will be needed thru the day on Fri. There
could be a few flurries or shsn Tue ngt with an upr trof passing
thru the area. Worst case scenario would be a dusting in some
spots.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pres and the associated arctic front drop down out of Canada
and reach the area on Fri. SW flow ahead of the low into the
already cold airmass should produce some snow - mainly light.
After the passing of the front, shsn possible with steep lapse
rates on Sat. The front will usher in frigid temps for the
weekend, with wind chills below zero all areas Fri night, then
at least 10-20 below for Sat ngt. 45-50kt winds at h85 could
produce nwly gusts around wind advy criteria on Sat as well.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Given a continued offshore flow and observed levels falling short of
guidance for the past high tide cycle or two, anticipating isolated
to scattered instances of flooding thresholds being just met or
slightly exceeded with this morning`s high tide cycle. Impacts
limited to Southern Nassau and Southern Queens where a coastal flood
statement remains posted. No flooding concerns thereafter for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through
tonight.

NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Gusts end
early this evening (20-22z). Winds weaken below 10 kt tonight
before backing to the W Tuesday morning.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.

Wind direction may average close to 310 magnetic at times
through this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon-Tuesday Night: VFR, but a low chance of MVFR
and light snow Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts
25-30 kt Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds today gradually decreasing. A SCA remains in effect for
all areas, ending first this mrng on the protected waters as
winds diminish, then by Tue mrng on the ocean as waves subside.
Areas of light freezing spray can be expected today.

Winds and seas are modeled to remain blw SCA lvls Tue thru Thu.

An arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas
on Fri, with gales possible Fri ngt thru Sat. Freezing spray
could be mdt-hvy at times this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JC
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JMC