188
FXUS61 KOKX 061846
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
246 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Coldest night of the season thus far coming up for tonight.
Frost, isolated freezing temperatures for late tonight into
early Wednesday morning for parts of the region.

2) Temperatures rebound with air mass moderation Wednesday
into Thursday. Above normal temperatures forecast Thursday.

3) Next chance of rain Sunday night into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Good radiational cooling tngt with high pres building over the
area. The 12Z MET and MAV were blended in with the official
fcst. The NBM continues to look too warm under these conditions.

No changes to the frost advy with the nrn tier the best chance
to see widespread frost.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Dry and mild thru most of the week with return flow around the
departing high. A cold frontal passage could produce a few shwrs
late Wed ngt and Thu, but the sys is moisture starved and the
NBM pops are dry. Kept the fcst dry as a result.

The warmest day is Thu attm right ahead of the front. The
numbers however will depend on the speed of the front. The NAM
is much quicker, and would keep temps cooler as a result. The
MET has 69 for a high at EWR. In contrast, the slower GFS
supports of high of 80 in the same place per the MAV. Stuck with
the NBM which was middle of the road for now.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The next chance for rain is Sunday night into the beginning of
next week as residual tropical moisture potentially gets into
the area ahead of the next upr trof. Too far out to deviate from
the blended approach with chances now in the 40-50 percent
range. There is the possibility that the upr trof gets in quick
enough to keep most of the moisture south of the area with
little pcpn. There is also the possibility that the tropical
moisture gets into the area and produces some locally heavy rain
before the trof clears things out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure to the west builds over the area tonight,
then passes east daytime Wed.

NW winds around or just over 10 kt with ocnl gusts should
diminish this evening and become light/vrb. SW flow 5-10 kt
expected after 13Z-15Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl gusts to around 20kt possible thru 21-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon and night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of rain with MVFR cond at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru the day
Wed. Winds may approach 25kt Wed night ahead of the next cold
front, especially on the ocean. Conditions then improve behind
the front on Thu, with winds and seas blw SCA lvls thru the
weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$