765
FXUS61 KOKX 012325
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions continue into mid week.

2) Increasingly likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far persists in response to
confluent NW upper flow giving way to East Coast upper ridging
thru mid week. At the surface, high pressure gradually elongates
offshore through mid week.

Slightly milder temps for tonight/early Mon morning with light
return flow and waa. This does bring the likelihood for patchy
fog in addition to patchy frost conditions for outlying areas.

Conditions moderate to well above normal through mid week as heights
rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return WAA SW
flow. High temps will incrementally rise from the lower to mid
60s on Monday, to upper 60s/lower 70s (10 degrees above
seasonable) by Wed/Thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise
from the 30s/40s Mon morning to upper 50s/lower 60 by Thu
morning (close to normal high temps for parts of the area this
time of year)


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Increasing NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly
moving east-southeastward early-mid next week, phasing with
incoming upstream Aleutian trough, and then pivoting towards
the eastern US Fri/Sat. Greater lean of ensembles over the last
24 hrs towards central US trough remaining influenced by the
northern stream and approaching as a closed upper low towards
the NE/Mid Atlantic US East coast late week/weekend (while
phasing in a developing offshore SE US trough/closed low).

Increasing confidence on a frontal system, possibly interacting with
offshore low pressure system, affecting the area with a wetting
rainfall late in the week into the weekend. NBM probabilities
have increased to 70-80 percent for Fri-Sat period, but still
inherently lower predictability on exact timing and sensible
weather details this far out. More details as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period as it slowly slides
just to the south and southeast late Monday into Monday night.

VFR throughout the TAF period.

Winds will be light out of the SW this evening, before going light and
variable at non coastal terminals overnight. Tomorrow, SW winds develop
and get to 7-12 kt towards midday and through the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR. SW winds becoming light.

Tuesday: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower
higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond
developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conds continue on all waters through Thursday as high
pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

Next chance of SCA conditions on the ocean potentially Fri/Sat
dependent on evolution of frontal/low pressure system.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...NV