875
FXUS65 KPUB 261834
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier for the mountains Wednesday, with cool and wet conditions
for the east mountains and plains. Showers and storms will continue.

- Warmer and drier Thurs/Fri, still a low chance of  thunderstorms
across the eastern mountains and plains.   Increased fire danger
expected across the San Luis Valley, as   winds ramp up.

- Still some hints of potentially cooler and wetter weather for
  the weekend into early next week, though confidence remains
  rather low in the timing and coverage of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

A baggy upper trough continues to influence our area through the
rest of today, as a stronger closed low spins over the west coast
and slowly moves east-northeast. Through the rest of today, moisture
will continue advecting in, with showers and thunderstorms spreading
across the mountains and valleys. As far as chances for stronger
thunderstorms are concerned, seeing very little in terms of
instability. Models indicate around 200-500 J/kg of CAPE across the
eastern plains, but with a general lack of shear and good forcing,
some embedded thunder and gusty outflow winds are about all today is
expected to yield.

For tonight, showers will linger across the area, with more
widespread, stratiform precipitation moving onto I-25 from the Raton
area. These showers will mainly stay close to the mountains, with
better chances for rain in areas with more persistent upsloping.
After a brief lull in the early morning hours, more showers and
thunderstorms will spread in from the southeast as the upper system
moves in.

The main circulation around the upper low begins to move into
western Colorado tomorrow. There`s been a bit of variation between
models on the behavior and strength of this circulation, but in
general we should be seeing an uptick in precip chances along and
east of our southeast mountains, while drier air moves into the
higher terrain and keeps chances low. Any lingering showers from
overnight near the mountains should dissipate by mid-morning, with
showers and storms kicking up over portions of the plains throughout
the rest of the day. Best chances for anything on the stronger side
will be along the mountains/plains interface, where easterly upslope
will be maximized and enhance lift, and near the KS border, where
dewpoints will be a bit higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

The upper low continues moving into the Rockies Thurs/Fri, bringing
warmer temperatures to most of the area and drier conditions to the
mountains. Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the San Luis Valley both days, as well as portions
of the nearby mountains. As of now, fuels remain green enough to
avoid any highlights, but we`ll see how much things dry out before
then. For the plains, models disagree on the amount of available
moisture, and whether we`ll see any convection on Thursday. CAPE
looks to range anywhere from 200-1000 K/kg with the latest
deterministic model runs, and with winds aloft fairly weak, shear
looks to be minimal. Latest NBM has brought POPs down a bit, so will
stick closer to that solution for now given the drier trend in the
data the last few days. Expecting rain showers and a few scattered
thunderstorms over the southeast mountains, portions of the Pikes
Peak Region, and along the CO/KS border. More dry air moves into the
region on Friday, with only scattered afternoon showers and storms
expected, mostly over the higher terrain and southeast plains due to
diurnal heating. Temperatures will be in the 70s-80s both days,
slightly warmer on Friday. Some critical fire weather conditions
will also be possible in the San Luis Valley, but winds appear
marginal and fuels are still green, so no highlights needed as of
yet.

Weekend pattern still looks messy and inconsistent between models.
Once the first portion of the upper trough shoves off to our
northeast, a weak blocking pattern will build in over the CONUS for
a few days. Meanwhile, another trough will begin deepening over the
Pacific Northwest. Beyond that, models diverge on the behavior of
the overall pattern, particularly in regards to moisture content.
Overall, the pattern continues to signal wet conditions over the
plains and the southeast mountains, while the rest of the area
remains dry, with some fire weather concerns around the San Luis
Valley.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

KALS: Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area,
sporadically through the next 24 hours. Showers will be present in
the area this afternoon, with thunderstorms moving near the terminal
after 21Z. Another round of showers will move through the valley
after 02Z or so. Assigned PROB30 and TEMPO groups based on
confidence in storm coverage. Clouds will sink into the MVFR to high-
IFR range, only returning to 5kft or so cigs by the end of the
period. Showers and storms will produce gusty outflow, with gusts 25-
30 knots possible.

KCOS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of the
area today and tonight. This afternoon, most storms should remain
over the mountains, but included a PROB30 as some storms may move
further east. Upslope winds will gust 30 knots, weakening to 10
knots or so overnight. These winds will lower cloud decks well into
MVFR and remain there into tomorrow. Showers are expected to pass
through overnight around 03Z, with another round possible mid-late
morning on Wednesday.

KPUB: Breezy southeast winds around 20-25 knots will move into the
terminal this afternoon, with clouds dipping into MVFR and largely
staying there through Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will pass
through the area later this afternoon, potentially bringing precip
to the terminal for brief periods between 21-03Z. Winds weaken
overnight, and upslope keeps lower clouds in place across the area.
Early Weds morning, another round of showers will be possible in the
area, lasting into mid-morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO