716
FXUS65 KPUB 130734
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
134 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight upturn in storm chances today, especially along the
  Continental Divide. Continued dry and hot from I-25 eastward.

- Isolated high terrain storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday,
  best chance of storms over the eastern San Juans.

- Increasing moisture and thunderstorm chances then expected
  along/near the Continental Divide from Thursday into the
  weekend, with measurable rain likely. Activity tapers off to
  isolated over the eastern mountains, with only spotty/light
  rainfall, while I-25 and the plains stay dry.

- Still some hints of Monsoonal moisture possibly working into
  all of the region early next week as upper level high pressure
  wanders through the Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Slight increase in moisture today (mainly along the Continental
Divide) will produce a minor upturn in convection, with the
eastern San Juans having the highest pops from mid-afternoon
into the evening. Farther east, convective build ups may produce
a few sprinkles and gusty winds over interior valleys and the
eastern mountains, though a few CAMs show a couple of weak
storms over the Sangres drifting westward through the San Luis
Valley toward 00z. I-25 and plains remain dry, and steering
currents will again tend to move storms w-sw. Max temps may
drift upward a degf or two on the plains, though most of the
area will end up with in a couple degf of yesterday`s numbers.

Similar set-up on Tuesday, with best moisture remaining south
and west of the area and thus the greatest chance for storms
again along the Continental Divide (San Juans most favored for a
storm once more). Mid level heights and temps decrease just
slightly Tue as center of the upper high slides into the central
plains and weak upper low drifts eastward over the srn
Mississippi Valley. Set-up may drop maxes just a couple degf
from Monday`s readings, mainly on the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Upper low drifts westward into TX on Wed, with hints of a weak
spoke of energy rotating westward across srn Colorado late Wed
afternoon. As upper ridge over the srn Rockies weakens slightly,
deeper moisture creeps back northward into the area, with an
upturn in convection over the swrn mountains, and scattered
activity farther north along the Continental Divide and across
the southern Sangres. Suspect we`ll begin to see measurable
precip with storms near the Divide as moisture increases, and
some local quarter inch plus amounts look possible over the ern
San Juans. Steering flow again looks unfavorable for eastern
mountains/I-25/plains to see storms, as activity will again tend
to move westward. Center of the upper high then gradually
shifts/reforms back over the Rockies from the end of the week
into the weekend, keeping a modest inflow of mid level moisture
in place across wrn CO. Expect scattered to numerous storms
along the Continental Divide through the period, with perhaps
some substantial rain totals (over 1 inch) possible by Sunday,
mainly over the ern San Juans. Precip chances and amounts taper
off quickly over the ern mountains and interior valleys, though
even here some spotty light precip is possible. Still not
enthused about precip along I-25 and on the plains Fri-Sun,
though if upper high can wobble back slightly more w-nw
(especially Sunday), upper level winds may shift to the nw,
potentially moving storms over the higher terrain back onto the
plains. Max temps may creep back upward slightly as heights/mid
level temps warm at bit, with the potential for some 100f
readings on the plains Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will predominantly be from
an easterly component at all taf sites. It will be breezy at times
in the afternoon and early evening time periods. CB`s will be
visible from each of the taf sites tomorrow afternoon but the
activity is expected to remain more than 10 miles from the taf
sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE