273
FXUS65 KGJT 130641
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1241 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record heat is expected to continue for western Colorado
  and eastern Utah through tomorrow.

- Daytime highs for the lower elevations are forecast to run
  between 100F and 106F. Consider limiting time outdoors during
  the heat of the day.

- Moisture returns to the region this week. Afternoon storms
  are possible each day with coverage increasing as the week
  progresses.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Temperatures have decreased to below Heat Advisory criteria in
southwestern Colorado, and Heat Warning criteria in southeastern
Utah, so these products have been allowed to expire. Heat
Warnings remain in effect through midnight tomorrow night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

MOISTURE MOVING IN:

The center of the high pressure continues to move northeast
into the Dakotas today, supporting easterly flow in our area.
This will allow for more moisture to be pulled into our CWA,
across the Four Corners region at first, then spreading more
northward late tomorrow. The bulk of the moisture is still
forecast to remain to our west, but isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible tomorrow afternoon,
mostly over the southern high terrain where our moisture will
be most abundant.

Throughout the week ahead, a weak high circulation remains in
place across northern Colorado into Wyoming with the main plume
of moisture arcing across SoCal, Nevada and western Utah. Our
forecast area will be under an easterly flow regime due to the
position of the high pressure. Moisture will gradually increase
throughout the week, and while not substantial, dew points will
climb into the 40s and 50s for some locations. Gusty outflow
winds up to 40-50 mph and lightning are primary concerns during
the initial onset of moisture, but chances of wetting rain and
heavier rain rates increase by mid to late week. This is when
burn scar flash flooding will become our primary concern.

Due to easterly flow aloft, storms this week will track to the
west, opposite of what we see most days. This changes where
storm development will be favored and how storms behave
downwind of that development.

HEAT OUTLOOK:

As far as temperatures are concerned, we are still looking at
extreme heat with triple-digit highs for lower valleys through
at least tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, there is some uncertainty
with regards to temperatures due to the incoming moisture and
the uptick in cloud coverage. Current guidance has the triple-
digit highs sticking around through much of the week ahead, but
expect refinements to the forecast as we hone in on the details
of this new pattern. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
remain in effect through tomorrow evening.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Storm
activity is beginning to dissipate for the evening which will
lighten up some of our winds. Winds are expected to resume
terrain driven patterns overnight, with some TAF sites seeing
higher sustained wind speeds and gustiness during that time
period. Gusts are not expected to be impactful to aviation
operations, but nonetheless worth a mention. Shower and storm
activity will redevelop come Monday afternoon, particularly in
the Four Corners area, but cannot rule out some activity up towards
KGUC. Gusty outflows will be the main concern with those.
Lastly, fires burning southeast of KHDN could possibly introduce
smoke into that terminal. Therefore, chose to mention it in the
TAF through Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A few gusty winds will continue overnight but shouldn`t pose any
aviation concerns. Showers and storms will develop again this
afternoon and evening over southern portions of the forecast
area. As of now, KDRO and KTEX have the best chances to see
convection and included it in TAFs.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ001-002-
     006-007.
UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ024-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT