761
FXUS65 KGJT 261806
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1206 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm activity increases today. Gusty
  outflow winds, small hail, and periods of brief heavy rainfall
  are possible.

- As the current system exits, gusty winds will stick around
  each afternoon through the end of the week.

- Red Flag Warnings will be in effect Wednesday 1pm-8pm much of
  eastern Utah and the Four Corners area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts the trough axis to our west, which
will propagate through our area as we move through the day. This
will lead to some scattered shower activity and the possibility for
thunderstorms. Showers will propagate from south to north during
this time period. Locations where the sun was able to peak out this
morning may have the best chance for instability as we move into the
afternoon hours. It looks like northeast Utah and northwest Colorado
did not have as much cloud cover this morning which could indicate
an interesting afternoon ahead. A modest jet streak is also forecast
to track across the region this afternoon, producing some localized
wind shear. PWATs are currently sitting at 200% of normal for most
of the region which would indicate plenty of available moisture. All
that being said, the best chances for stronger thunderstorms exist
northward of I-70. Gusty winds and small hail are the main threats.
As mentioned earlier, there is plenty of available moisture fueling
this system which would indicate heavy rainfall as a threat as well.
Shower activity appears to diminish in most places as we move closer
to sunset. With the increasing cloud cover and associated showers,
daytime highs will run a few degrees below normal today.

HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN:

By Wednesday, a large cutoff low begins to slide down the West Coast
which will shift our flow from moist southerly to a more dry
southwesterly regime. Cloud cover will begin to diminish, dew points
plummet, and temperatures will climb close to above normal by the
end of the week. Eastern Utah and western Colorado will then be
sandwiched between the aformentioned cutoff low to the west and
ridging to the east, which will set up tight pressure gradient
contours. This will cause gusts in the 30-40 mph range each
afternoon. As a result, critical fire weather conditions make a
return for the lower elevations of the Western Slope through at
least Friday. See the fire weather section for more information on
that. Along the higher terrain, enough available moisture will
linger to prompt orographic showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
through the end of the week. As previously mentioned, temperatures
will hover around 10-15 degrees above normal during this time
period, with winds relaxing as we move into the weekend, creating a
break from critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers are developing across the region, and will continue
through the afternoon along with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. The main threats will be lightning and gusty
winds, but there is a chance some sites could have brief drops
to MVFR conditions. Storms will generally end around sunset, but
precipitation should linger overnight across the Divide.
Outside of areas with shower and thunderstorm activity, VFR
conditions will prevail. Winds will generally become calm
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

A deep closed low detaches from the parent flow in the PacNW early
this week. By Wednesday, sharp pressure gradients around the low
will have set up across our CWA, prompting strong surface winds. We
will also be inviting a drier air mass into the region during this
time. Relative humidity will drop below 15%, particularly in eastern
Utah and the Four Corners region. The previous Fire Weather Watches
in place for Wednesday have now been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings
for the same zones. The low begins to stall through Friday leading
to a few days of critical fire weather concerns. Because of this,
Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Thursday for the same fire
zones as Wednesday. Winds will begin to decrease through the
weekend, which will decrease critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ207-
     290.
     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ207-290.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ486-
     487-490.
     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for UTZ486-487-490.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT