621
FXUS65 KGJT 061835
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1235 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the week.
  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San
  Juans and central mountains each afternoon, especially today
  and Wednesday.

- High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for
  this time of the year.

- A stronger storm system may pass through early next week,
  bringing chances for widespread precipitation and cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

DAILY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON:

A shortwave trough is moving across the region today. This
shortwave will provide some support for mountain showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon hours over the
southern and central Colorado mountains. After today, afternoon
showers and storms remain in the forecast each day through
Saturday. Substantial rainfall is not expected from this
convective activity, but the majority of any measurable
precipitation is expected to occur today and tomorrow. High
temperatures will continue to be above normal each day through
the workweek, with highs forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees above
normal.

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING SUNDAY:

A closed low looks to develop over the Pacific Northwest later
this week, moving southward along the West Coast and then
potentially inland across the Intermountain West late this
weekend or early next week. Guidance has consistently shown this
pattern shift between runs, and deterministic models are in
relatively good agreement about the initial development and
movement of the low. So, confidence has increased regarding
this pattern shift and the subsequent potential for widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures in our region. However,
confidence regarding timing and impacts for our area is still
low at this point. Over the coming days confidence in the
forecast for moisture and forcing will increase and potential
impacts will become more understood.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Cloud cover will increase some this afternoon against
the Divide with some additional moisture spilling over the
ridge and a weak shortwave producing some isolated showers.
Included PROB30 language in TAFs at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX to
account for the best opportunity for showers on the surrounding
terrain. Some showers could produce gusty outflows and brief
visibility and ceiling restrictions. However, widespread
aviation problems are not likely.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GF/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT