848
FXUS65 KGJT 182323
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized critical fire weather conditions continue Friday,
  then become widespread under strong winds Saturday.

- The threat of dry thunderstorms emerges Friday and into the
  weekend, increasing the odds for new fire starts on the
  terrain.

- Fire weather conditions become more localized Sunday, but
  temperatures will ramp up next week. Critical fire weather is
  expected to develop under this hot and dry regime.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure will begin to erode Friday, due to a weak
shortwave moving across the Great Basin. Despite the hot and dry
conditions in place, an isolated thunderstorm on the terrain is
not out of the question. This will be the near-term weather
threat of concern as the weekend approaches. Surface winds
beneath the trough pick up Saturday afternoon, with winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph, including some stronger gusts mixed in.
This will introduce widespread critical fire weather to eastern
UT and western CO. The additional threat of dry lightning could
enhance the potential for new fire starts in this regime. The
scarcity of surface moisture will nearly guarantee a lack of
wetting rains too. This broad trough is slow to exit Sunday and
will likely pose some additional threat for a terrain based
shower and/or thunderstorm. Cooler temperatures(only 5 degrees
over average) will continue this weekend. However, high pressure
builds back in and returns triple digit highs to the deserts
Monday and beyond.

This hot and dry pattern will likely include localized patches
of critical fire weather next week. Daytime mixing could produce
winds high enough for more widespread fire weather, but
certainty in this regime will be day to day. Of concern most
days next week, will be the evolution of the broad high pressure
over the southern CONUS. Models are hinting at pockets of
moisture slipping beneath the high and infiltrating the region.
This will certainly add an additional shower and storm risk to
the antecedent critical fire weather conditions. Wetting rains
seem unlikely in this hot, dry pattern too.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours under mainly
clear skies. A few afternoon breezes with gusts in the 25 to 30
mph range will be possible along with isolated mountain showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure will slowly erode over the next 36 hours as a
shortwave disturbance crosses the Great Basin. Critical fire
weather conditions will remain localized under lighter winds and
hot, dry conditions this afternoon and Friday. Non zero chances
for terrain based thunderstorms emerge Friday afternoon,
elevating the chances for new fire starts under the antecedent
hot, dry regime. This chance increases Saturday afternoon, given
the more dynamic environment that develops under the shortwave.
Fire Weather Watches are in place for the West Slope and
eastern UT on Saturday. The critical fire weather threat will
continue Sunday, but looks much more localized in nature. The
threat for additional shower/thunderstorm development continues
Sunday. High pressure returns next week as high pressure builds
back in. Triple digit temperatures likely return to our low
desert locales as well, with low relative humidity this will
likely include critical fire weather conditions continuing.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT