724
FXUS65 KPUB 061947
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
147 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather conditions across the far southeast plains
  through the evening, with the potential for high fire danger
  again Wednesday and Thursday across the interior valleys.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week, with
  the best coverage Tuesday and again late in the work week into
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly
flow in place across the region, with a weak embedded wave translating
across the Great Basin, as stronger westerly flow persists across
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier at this time. Water vapor imagery
is also indicating mid and high level moisture streaming across the
Great Basin and into the Rockies at this time. GOES satellite imagery
is indicating high level clouds streaming across the region, along
with some cumulus clouds developing across the southern mtns at this
time. Current temperatures are in the 60s to low 70s across the southeast
plains, with readings in the in 40s to low 60s in place across the
mountains and high mountain valleys at this time.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Elongated lee troughing across the plains has gusty southwest winds
in place across southeastern tier, strongest across Baca county,
where current Red Flag Warning through 8 pm looks to be in good shape.
With the weak embedded wave translating across the region this evening,
will see lee trough pushing south and east allowing for a back door
front to slide across the plains, with gusty north to northeast winds
developing through the evening and diminishing overnight across the
plains. Still can`t rule out a few high based showers over and near the
higher terrain through the afternoon and early evening, with more virga
and gusty outflow winds expected than measurable precipitation. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy skies and said breezy conditions will keep overnight lows
mild, mainly in the 30s across the plains, and in the 20s and 30s across
the higher terrain. Another weak embedded wave within the westerly flow
aloft and increased available moisture will lead to scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms area wide tomorrow afternoon, with the best
coverage over and near the southern mountains. Temperatures cool slightly
with highs mainly in the 60s across the plains, and in the 40s and 50s
across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Increasing west to northwest flow aloft remains progged on Wednesday,
as a stronger upper trough translates across the Northern Tier.
Increasing flow and drier conditions will lead to increasing fire danger
once again, especially for the interior valleys and I-25 Corridor.
However, there is not enough confidence in current wind forecast to
support a Fire Weather Watch at this time. At any rate, temperatures
look to warm back to well above seasonal levels in the 70s to mid 80s
across the plains, with 50s and 60s expected across the higher terrain.
However, there is some model indication of a quicker passing system and
front, which could bring cooler temperatures to plains than currently
forecast. There still looks to be enough residual moisture to support
a few isolated based showers over and near the higher terrain on Wednesday.

Current model data does indicate upper level ridging building back across
the region on Thursday, with lee troughing keeping warm temperatures
in the 70s to lower 80s across the plains, with 50s and 60s in place for
the higher terrain. There could once again be some critical fire weather
conditions across the interior valleys, along with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region on Thursday, but will need to
see how this pattern develops.

For Friday into the weekend, models continue to indicate increasing
available moisture within developing south to southwest flow aloft
across the region, as an upper low across the West Coast slowly lifting
out across the Desert SW and Great Basin. With poor model handling of
split flow and cutoff patterns, the timing and location of this system
remains in question. Hwever, with increasing available moisture, will
likely see increasing coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms
late in the work week which will continue through the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. COS and PUB will see diurnal south to southeast winds
develop through the early afternoon, with high based -shra
over the higher terrain developing cigs bkn100-120. VFR cigs
continue through the evening with a backdoor cold front
bringing gusty east to northeast winds to COS and PUB through
the evening, with winds north to northwest winds expected
overnight. High based showers passing in the VC of ALS could
bring gusty winds to the terminal through the late afternoon
and early evening, otherwise VFR cigs to persist at the
terminal through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW