227
FXUS66 KLOX 270306
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
806 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...26/1220 PM.

A low pressure system will bring cool temperatures and a chance of
drizzle or light showers, as well as gusty winds to the beaches,
mountains, and deserts through Thursday. Winds will be the
strongest this afternoon and evening. A warming trend will begin
Friday and continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/805 PM.

Current satellite/surface observations indicate mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies as deep and weak inversion is generating a
chaotic stratus pattern. Latest wind reports indicate southwest to
northwest gusts in the 30-45 MPH range across the deserts, Central
Coast and western Santa Ynez Range.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main issue will be the
winds. Based on current trends, winds are diminishing across the
Central Coast as well as the Antelope Valley. So, will likely
expire those WIND ADVISORIES early. However for the western Santa
Ynez Range, there`s still a good chance of winds increasing and
will let that WIND ADVISORY remain in effect. Otherwise, the deep,
but weak, inversion will allow for more low clouds overnight.
However, confidence in the exact areal coverage remains low, but
best chances look to be across the Central Coast as well as LA
county.

Looking further out into the short term period, latest guidance
does not indicate anything to deviate dramatically from current
forecast. Main feature of note remains a cutoff low that will
wobble southward into Central California Wednesday through
Thursday. This will bring a period of cool and unsettled weather
with a chance of some light showers across the area with the
"best" chances across the Central Coast and interior sections.
Additionally, there is a 10-15% chance of an isolated
thunderstorm. Skies will waver between mostly clear to mostly
cloudy through Thursday with deep, but weak, inversion and
unstable airmass associated with the upper low. Basically, the
cloud pattern will be rather chaotic.

By Friday, the low moves eastward into the Great Basin and a ridge
begins to nose in from the southwest. So, this will push any
shower threat east of the region. Skies should become mostly clear
although there`s a decent chance of a more established marine
layer stratus pattern Friday morning. Also with more sunshine and
a warmer airmass, temperatures will rebound about 3-10 degrees.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/1256 PM.

After the cold upper low exits the area, a weak baggy trough will
linger over the state into Saturday before ridging returns Sunday
into next week. Models indicate pressure gradients slowly
weakening through the period, possibly turning lightly offshore by
next Monday. At the same time heights will be rising, possibly
getting close to 590dam by Wednesday. Look for highs close to 90
or slightly higher over the warmer valleys by early next week and
mid 80s Downtown LA. Coastal temps will be dependent on the
gradients but likely still in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overall,
near normal temperatures at the coast but 5-10 degrees above
normal inland.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0206Z.

At 0017Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5200 ft deep. The top of
the weak inversion was at 6500 ft with a temperature of 7 C.

Moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. Overnight cigs are possible for
KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and KWJF. Wind speeds may be off by 5 kt (gusts
off to 10 kts) during peak winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for short
lived east wind component of around 5 kt from 11Z to 16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty in timing of
wind shifts.

&&

.MARINE...26/205 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A GALE WARNING is in effect through late tonight as
winds and seas will trend upwards through this evening. SCA
conditions will then follow through Wednesday afternoon or night.
Thereafter, conditions are likely to fall below SCA levels for a
short-time, before returning Friday night into the weekend. For
the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, today through early
Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of at least SCA level
winds/seas, with a GALE WARNING currently in effect through late
tonight.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, SCA level W to NW
winds are expected across the Santa Barbara Channel today, around
the Channel Islands, and into Santa Monica Bay during the evening.
A GALE WARNING in in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel late
this afternoon through late tonight, and local Gale Force winds
may occur nearshore Anacapa island. SCA level winds could linger
into Wednesday especially across the channel. Otherwise, expecting
conditions to fall below SCA levels thereafter.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 340-341-346>348-354. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/MW
AVIATION...Phillips/Schoenfeld
MARINE...DB/CC/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox