535
FXUS66 KMFR 020521
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
921 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year
  expected through the upcoming week.

* Precipitation chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

The trough which brought precipitation to the region yesterday is
moving east out of the region as of writing this. In the wake, an
H5 ridge of high pressure will begin to transition over the
region tonight through tomorrow. This ridge will allow for
clearing skies today, but satellite shows stubborn areas that are
still holding on to clouds. Expecting most areas to clear out by
last this afternoon. The big question for tonight is how much
residual low level saturation will hold over. Most guidance shows
clear skies, but finding this hard to believe given the recent
rainfall across westside valleys. Fairly confident low clouds and
fog will develop again tonight for areas in the Umpqua basin and
the Rogue Valley. Less confidence for areas along/near the coast
due to an offshore component in the wind likely keeping things
mostly clear.

The next trough will take a more southerly track than previously
seen, so this will likely reduce precipitation chances for a good
portion of the forecast area. That said, areas across the southern
Oregon coast, and southerly portions of the forecast area
(including northern California) will have a chance for rainfall
Tuesday/Tuesday night. However, rainfall amounts will be on the
lower side with some isolated amounts potentially around a quarter
of an inch of rainfall. Not expecting much--if any--snowfall but
some areas above 5000 feet could see a light dusting.

The aforementioned trough on Tuesday then moves out and another
weak ridge of high pressure slides over the area through midweek.
The weak ridge flattens enough on Wednesday that we could see some
weak energy from the base of a trough that extends down from the
Gulf of Alaska pass over the forecast area. This may result in
small chances for precipitation Wed/Wed night, but amounts are
only a few hundredths of an inch. The flow then turns mostly zonal
through the end of the work week.

Not seeing much in the realm of weather impacts for the upcoming
week other than light rainfall amounts. To further illustrate
this, the probability for 0.10" of rainfall never exceeds 40%-50%
this upcoming week, so while some areas will get light amounts of
rainfall, this wont be anywhere near significant amounts for any
locations across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather
around Veteran`s Day which could bring strong winds, increased
rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations
above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot
can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for
potential impactful weather.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION....02/06Z...Conditions are mostly VFR with areas of LIFR
in the northern Umpqua Valley. Overnight, areas of LIFR in low
clouds and fog are likely to expend in the Umpqua Valley. There is
also medium confidence for LIFR in fog developing in the Illinois
and Rogue Valleys late tonight/early Monday morning. With the later
onset of fog in the Illinois and Rogue valleys, high clouds moving
into the area tonight, may limit fog development. Along the coast,
conditions are expected to remain VFR with a low chance of fog (15%)
at North Bend (KOTH) late tonight.  East of the Cascades and in
Northern California, expect mainly VFR into Monday morning but
localized IFR/LIFR in fog is possible, such as in the Mount Shasta
City, Alturas and Lakeview areas.

Any fog and low ceilings that develop are  expected to lift and
dissipate during the late morning, with VFR areawide by around
19z.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026...Winds and
seas are expected to remain below advisory levels tonight. Long-
period west-northwest swell builds tonight into Monday night with
seas becoming steep in the outer waters. Seas will then remain
high and steep in at least the outer waters Tuesday through
Tuesday evening. Southeast winds and swell dominated seas are
likely to reach a peak on Tuesday morning. Conditions briefly
improve on Wednesday. An active pattern late in the week may
produce high to very high swell dominated seas.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 PM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026...
Long period WNW swell will continue building into the area into
Monday evening. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands,
the swell arrives along the Oregon coast this afternoon at 2 ft at
20 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run
much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could
produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet
at 19 seconds tonight then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by
Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most
prominent late tonight through Monday during the incoming high
tides. Wave periods drop to 16 seconds on Monday night, then below
15 seconds later Tuesday; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves
will lessen.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday
     evening for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ370-376.

&&

$$