480
FXUS64 KSHV 020632
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - One more very warm and humid day Monday with give way to
   increasing showers and thunderstorms late Monday night over
   East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and
   Western Louisiana.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will shift east across much of the
   region through the day Tuesday along a cold front, and will
   bring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms,
   before diminishing during the evening.

 - Cooler and drier conditions are expected for mid and late week
   in wake of the frontal passage, with near seasonal
   temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates dirty ridging
spreading E through the Srn Plains and Mid MS Valley, ahead of
longwave troughing entering the Rockies and Four Corners Region.
Meanwhile, the 12.3-10.35um satellite imagery indicates a broad
swath of low clouds that have developed/advected NW into Lower E
TX, much of N LA and into Srn AR, along and behind an inverted sfc
trough extending from far SE TX into NW LA, SCntrl and SE AR. This
bndry is most discernible through the sfc theta-e analysis, with
near to lower 70 degree dewpoints evident SE of the bndry. This
feature is progged to continue drifting NW later this morning
before becoming more diffuse by/after daybreak, although continued
low level moisture advection and weak isentropic forcing may
contribute to isolated -SHRA development by mid/late morning
through the afternoon over all but the Wrn sections of E TX.
Afternoon temps will again return much above normal near 80 to the
lower 80s, but should remain shy of the max temp records for the
date.

The primary focus for deep convection will be to our W, as the dry
line mixes E into the TX Big Country and Wrn OK, and focuses
initial development through the day as large scale ascent
increases along the approaching upper trough axis. Stronger
instability and wind shear will contribute to an increasing severe
threat during the afternoon/evening over the Srn Plains, as an
organized band of convection forms and slowly marches E into
Cntrl/Ern OK and N TX during the evening. The short term progs
remain in good agreement with timing, as the arrival of these
storms will move into the NW zones after 06Z Tuesday, but should
weaken some in intensity given decreasing instability with the
loss of diurnal heating. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out though NW of the I-30 corridor, with an attendant
cold front eventually overtaking the dryline, before entering the
region by/after daybreak Tuesday. These storms may again begin to
reintensify by late morning through the afternoon as diurnal
heating contributes to increased instability, which should build
from portions of Deep E TX across much of Cntrl and Nrn LA into
Srn AR. Shear should be slightly weaker (marginal) that what will
develop later today farther W, as well as to our N), with isolated
strong to severe storms possible, capable of producing locally
gusty and potentially damaging winds. Widespread wetting rains
will also result from this convection, but the steady Ewd
progression of the convection will limit storm totals, with
QPF amounts ranging from 0.50-1.5+ inches, a bit lower than
previous model runs, as the base of the trough axis begins to lift
NE into the Mid-South region during the afternoon/evening, thus
focusing the stronger ascent and higher QPF`s over this area.

The convection will begin to exit Srn AR/NCntrl LA Tuesday
evening, eventually clearing the SE zones prior to daybreak
Wednesday. Aside from some post-frontal stratocu over the NW half
of the area Tuesday evening, the sky should begin to clear in wake
of the fropa, with cooler and drier air spilling ESE into the
region. The flow aloft will briefly become zonal beneath the
ejecting trough Wednesday, with the medium range guidance
continuing to suggest another progressive shortwave trough that
will traverse OK/AR Thursday night/Friday morning. While the NBM
guidance is dry during this period, it`s not out of the realm of
possibility for some elevated -SHRA to develop along this next
trough given the strength of the elevated forcing, pending how
amplified it will become. However, the lack of any Srly return
flow will maintain a dry low level air mass, with any QPF across
the Nrn zones expected to remain light. This next trough will help
to reinforce the cooler and drier air mass into the area by late
week/next weekend, before a potentially stronger cold front spills
even cooler air in from the NW by late weekend/early next week.
Unfortunately, this next front also looks to move through dry.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the 02/06Z TAF period, flight conditions are already beginning
to deteriorate at a few terminals to begin the period with broader
expansion of low cigs expected this morning across our airspace.
Given the moisture profile, expect another round of MVFR/IFR cigs
through the early to mid morning hours on Monday. Some intermittent
LIFR cigs can`t be ruled out along with patchy fog once again, but
confidence is lower on the fog development given that clouds already
continue to increase and light E/SE winds should persist. Otherwise,
gradual improvement in cigs will lead to MVFR/low VFR conditions by
late morning into midday on Monday with SE winds increasing between
8-14 kts along with higher gusts possible across our western sites
in East Texas as well as KSHV/KTXK during the afternoon hours.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast
Oklahoma, adjacent Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme
Northeast Texas for the potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  68  76  52 /  20  40 100  10
MLU  81  68  82  54 /  20  10  90  70
DEQ  81  65  74  48 /  20  80  90   0
TXK  81  68  74  51 /  20  50  90   0
ELD  81  65  78  49 /  20  20 100  30
TYR  84  68  75  52 /  10  60  80   0
GGG  83  68  75  51 /  10  40  90   0
LFK  84  68  78  50 /  20  30  90  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...19