265
FXUS64 KLZK 070700
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
200 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

-Dry conditions and near normal temps to continue in the short term.

-Winds shift to southerly late Wednesday, above normal temps and
moisture return into the weekend

-Rain and thunderstorm chances increase later in the weekend into
 next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Synoptic scale weather pattern remains rather benign into the
weekend. Temps expected to remain near normal. The surface high
centered along the AR/MO line has fully eroded around midnight on
Tues. With this erosion any sensible pattern in winds has also
dissipated. Light and variable winds will persist until the late
morning hours when the surface high begins to reform over the MO
bootheel. Easterly flow will build into the area and remain the
prevailing pattern until late Weds. Low Min RHs (near 30th
percentile) combined with slightly stronger winds could present an
elevated fire danger Tues into Weds.

By midweek a weak shortwave will form over the area and push to the
East. This will shift the pattern into a southerly flow and allow
for moisture to return across much of the state. With this moisture
an outside chance for a quick shower exists but will be extremely
unlikely. Temps also begin to rise again, highs close to 80 will be
possible.

After the shortwave clears the area Thurs evening a weak ridge will
build over the area and shift flow to SWRLY. Even more warm and
moist air will start to push into the region. Highs in the low to
mid 80s likely over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances begin
to rise late into the weekend into next week.

Ensembles have been consistent in last few runs of a synoptic pattern
that supports several days of severe weather in the region next
week. At this time a lot of detail is still needed to be worked out
in the mesoscale for timing, impacts, and type of impactful weather.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Fairly quiet conditions were noted early this Tue morning...with
dominant VFR conditions expected to persist. Some increasing winds
will be see this afternoon as NERLY winds transition to more
SERLY later in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  47  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         75  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       70  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  73  49  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     76  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      73  50  76  53 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  68  45  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        70  47  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   73  49  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         72  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      73  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...62