680
FXUS64 KLZK 021648
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1048 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

-Warming conditions expected into Tuesday...with some chances for
showers returning to the forecast on Tuesday

-Slight cooler conditions expected by mid-week...but will be
 short- lived as warmer temperatures will return by late this week
 through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

SRLY flow had started returning across the state on Sun...which will
continue through this Mon and into part of Tue...allowing for the
warming trend to continue...and moisture levels to increase. Highs
today will be in the 50s and 60s...though some NERN areas may remain
in the 40s this afternoon. Lows tonight will remain above freezing
for most areas.

A new upper disturbance will move east over the region on Tue...with
the approach of a new cold front. This front will drop SE through
the state by mid/late afternoon on Tue. Along/ahead of this
front...some increased chances for rain will be seen...mainly across
the SERN half/two-thirds of the state. Best POPs will be across SERN
sections Tue afternoon. Widespread heavy rainfall is not expected as
deep moisture return will be limited. QPF estimates look to remain
less than a half inch...with the heavier precip falling across far
SERN sections.

Cooler air will move back into the area briefly for Wed...but SRLY
flow will return by Thu. Warmer conditions will be seen again for
Thu...and upper ridging will develop by the weekend. This will allow
for more persistent above normal temps late this week through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The forecast period between Monday midday and Tuesday midday will
begin with VFR CIGS, but all sites will experience MVFR to IFR CIGS
early Tuesday morning which will remain through the period as a cold
front approaches the state of Arkansas. Low level wind shear will
also be present across all sites during the early morning hours on
Tuesday. VCSH has been entered into FM GROUPS across the central and
southern terminals across Arkansas for the possibility of showers
during the morning through the remainder of Arkansas across those
sites. KBPK and KHOT both remain designated "AMD NOT SKED" due to a
communication issue that is being troubleshot at the current time,
but expect the site to remain "AMD NOT SKED" until observations
return to the site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     35  53  27  44 /   0  30   0   0
Camden AR         44  59  31  52 /  30  80  10   0
Harrison AR       37  48  25  43 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    41  57  30  50 /  30  50   0   0
Little Rock   AR  38  54  30  46 /  20  50   0   0
Monticello AR     44  58  33  48 /  10  80  10   0
Mount Ida AR      43  58  30  51 /  30  50   0   0
Mountain Home AR  33  49  25  43 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        33  50  27  42 /  10  40   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     40  55  31  46 /  10  70   0   0
Russellville AR   38  57  29  50 /  10  30   0   0
Searcy AR         33  54  27  45 /  10  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      38  52  30  44 /  10  70   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74