285
FXUS64 KMEG 262321
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next
  weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Satellite observations currently reveal a weak upper low centered
over northern Arkansas moving north. Scattered showers reside in
and around the low and are expected to continue through the day,
but weak mid-level lapse rates and poor insolation should keep an
increase in coverage at a minimum through this evening.
Regardless, temperatures will remain somewhat cooler, climbing
into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon.

The upper pattern across the CONUS will continue to consist of a
closed low over the Rockies and Pacific coast with a ridge over
the Southeast through the end of the work week. Multiple weak
upper shortwaves are expected to emanate from the western
troughing, traveling across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected in this regime
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
within stronger thunderstorms. Daily high temperatures are
expected to reach the mid 80s through at least Friday.

Confidence continues to rise that the pattern will begin to shift
by Friday. The upper ridge will amplify to the northwest across
the northern Plains, further amplifying into the weekend over
south-central Canada and creating an omega-blocking pattern. As
is typical of this type of pattern, an eastern upper low will
develop that will be thrown south into the Northeast through the
weekend. The system will push its way south towards the region,
but models struggle to bring a meaningful cooldown as the front
enters the area Saturday and into Sunday. Models do not have the
deep moisture being advected out until early next week,
supporting daily shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend
through at least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain showers are expected to decrease in coverage throughout the
evening as a weak shortwave trough departs the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The latest high resolution ensemble forecast suggests a
medium chance (40-60%) of MVFR ceilings developing overnight into
Wednesday morning at all sites with ceilings lowering further to
IFR conditions at MKL, JBR, and TUP. Shortwave ridging will keep
coverage lower on Wednesday with rain showers limited mostly in
the mid to late afternoon hours. Confidence remains too low to
include thunderstorm mention at sites for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable
future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled
pattern persists across the Mid-South.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC