115
FXUS64 KSHV 061745 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

 - Dry weather will continue, with morning lows in the 50s and
   60s, and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some sites south and
   east are expected to hit the lower 90s by mid to late this
   week.

 - The southern and eastern ArkLaTex may see an increasing chance
   of showers this weekend as a potential tropical disturbance
   approaches the Louisiana coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This week will find the ArkLaTex without much in the way of upper
level steering mechanisms, with northwest flow away north of the
Ozarks, ridging over the Desert Southwest, and a few attempted
troughs or lows which ultimately don`t end up amounting to much.

For the next several days, dry conditions will prevail areawide, and
in the near term, near normal temperatures will remain, with lows in
the lower to middle 60s south and even upper 50s north at daybreak
Tuesday. The dry airmass remaining with us and mostly clear skies
with abundant sunshine will do nothing to restrict heating, however,
and afternoon highs will leap back into the middle to upper 80s.
Wednesday looks to be a near carbon copy of tomorrow, and Thursday
and Friday would be following suit, aside from a warming trend
beginning to push highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and
some increasing cloud coverage in the afternoons. Morning lows
will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout.

Throughout this quiet week in the ArkLaTex, all eyes will be on an
area of low pressure which is expected to develop over the
southwestern Gulf within the next day or so. Signals are indicating
increasing chances that this low will organize into a tropical
depression later this week, with steering in the form of synoptic
scale flow around a Bermuda High directing it north and east towards
the U.S. Gulf Coast. It is still too early to speculate with
confidence on the potential intensity of this system as it
approaches the coast, but preparedness is always advisable. If the
system`s sustained winds reach Tropical Storm strength (39+ mph) it
will be given the name "Isaias." As for its track, the 12Z GFS
favors landfall somewhere along the LA/MS/AL coast. Please take
these early projections with a grain of salt, and be attentive to
forthcoming forecast updates.

Based on the consensus suggesting the system will keep largely to
our east, impacts to the ArkLaTex look to be fairly limited.
Again, bear in mind that this could change with subtle deviations
in system track, etc. As for right now, slight rain chances return
to our southeastern zones Saturday, continuing through the night
into Sunday. Aside from some brief incursions into Deep East
Texas, PoPs keep generally east of the I-49 corridor. Otherwise,
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue, with lows
trending back into the 60s areawide.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Expecting quiet and VFR conditions for the WFO SHV aerodrome over
the next 24 hours. There is some scattered cu with a bit of
vertical development in Central LA and an extremely stray shower
cannot be ruled out this afternoon there, but potential for any
impact at TAF sites is far too low to include in the 18Z package.
Bases of cu are in the 5 to 6 kft range. Expect these sorts of
cloud impacts to be around at least LFK, SHV, and MLU through
tomorrow, but sites elsewhere (e.g., GGG/TYR/TXK/ELD) should be
see clear skies through this time. Some very patchy and shallow
mist with vsbys > 1 mi cannot be ruled out late tonight and early
tomorrow, but again, the potential for impact is too low to
include at any TAF sites. Otherwise, expect daytime N to NE
surface winds in the 6 to 12 mph range through tomorrow, with
winds tending more toward light and variable tonight. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  55  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  91  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  87  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...50