549
FXUS64 KLZK 122333
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast
 across the southern half of Arkansas this afternoon/evening

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected in the coming days behind
 cool front today...with chances for rainfall off and on into
 Wednesday

-Hotter conditions expected by later this week as an upper level
 ridge expands back over the region

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

In the upper lvls, a center of high pressure fixated over the Four
Corners region of the CONUS will begin to transition over the
Northern Plains and Mid-West regions of the CONUS. Consequently,
from the placement of the elongated region of the upper lvl high
pressure will result in an upper lvl low pressure center to
retrograde westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
region of the CONUS to over Texas transitioning into the middle of
the upcoming workweek. Into later portions of the workweek and next
weekend, the overall upper lvl ridge begins to amplify over a broad
region of the Western and Central regions of the CONUS, including
over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a cold front is progged to be slowly transitioning from
central Arkansas into southern Arkansas and is anticipated to become
a stationary boundary across southern Arkansas. Latest CAMS and
evolution of guidance indicates a Marginal Risk for severe weather
across southern Arkansas with damaging wind gusts as the primary
hazard. A few possible storms are expected to develop along and
ahead of the placement of this boundary on Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Instability and low-level lapse rate are not
anticipated to be over impressive, but enough for a few instances of
damaging wind gusts across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Into Monday, this boundary will push southward into northern
Louisiana, but remain in close enough proximity to keep decent POP
chances across southern Arkansas for Monday afternoon. Into Tuesday
and Wednesday, this boundary will attempt to move slowly northward
as a warm front and near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, thus
afternoon POP chances will be elevated across much of Arkansas, but
confidence remains low in boundary placement. Into the later portion
of the workweek and next weekend, the boundary will wash out and a
region of sfc high pressure will be present across the region which
will result in near zero to zero POP chances along with temperatures
which will notably tick higher than normal by a few degrees for mid
July. A few locations across Arkansas will make a run at the century
mark for high temperatures and heat products will likely be
warranted over this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Showers and storms over the next few hours expected to remain
mainly south of all terminals, although cannot rule out some
remnant activity particularly over KADF. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected through the period, although some MVFR or lower
ceilings/visibilities possible overnight for the terminals that
received rainfall today during the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  89  68  89 /  10   0  10  40
Camden AR         71  90  69  89 /  40  10  10  20
Harrison AR       67  87  65  86 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    72  90  71  90 /  10  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  73  90  71  89 /  10  10   0  30
Monticello AR     72  90  71  88 /  30  10  10  40
Mount Ida AR      69  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  68  88  66  86 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        72  89  71  89 /   0   0   0  50
Pine Bluff AR     71  89  70  88 /  10  10   0  40
Russellville AR   73  92  71  91 /   0  10  10  20
Searcy AR         71  90  69  89 /   0   0   0  40
Stuttgart AR      73  89  72  88 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...77