264
FXUS64 KLZK 121646 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1146 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast
 across the southern half of Arkansas this afternoon/evening

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected in the coming days behind
 cool front today...with chances for rainfall off and on into
 Wednesday

-Hotter conditions expected by later this week as an upper level
 ridge expands back over the region

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

In the upper lvls, a center of high pressure fixated over the Four
Corners region of the CONUS will begin to transition over the
Northern Plains and Mid-West regions of the CONUS. Consequently,
from the placement of the elongated region of the upper lvl high
pressure will result in an upper lvl low pressure center to
retrograde westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
region of the CONUS to over Texas transitioning into the middle of
the upcoming workweek. Into later portions of the workweek and next
weekend, the overall upper lvl ridge begins to amplify over a broad
region of the Western and Central regions of the CONUS, including
over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a cold front is progged to be slowly transitioning from
central Arkansas into southern Arkansas and is anticipated to become
a stationary boundary across southern Arkansas. Latest CAMS and
evolution of guidance indicates a Marginal Risk for severe weather
across southern Arkansas with damaging wind gusts as the primary
hazard. A few possible storms are expected to develop along and
ahead of the placement of this boundary on Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Instability and low-level lapse rate are not
anticipated to be over impressive, but enough for a few instances of
damaging wind gusts across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Into Monday, this boundary will push southward into northern
Louisiana, but remain in close enough proximity to keep decent POP
chances across southern Arkansas for Monday afternoon. Into Tuesday
and Wednesday, this boundary will attempt to move slowly northward
as a warm front and near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, thus
afternoon POP chances will be elevated across much of Arkansas, but
confidence remains low in boundary placement. Into the later portion
of the workweek and next weekend, the boundary will wash out and a
region of sfc high pressure will be present across the region which
will result in near zero to zero POP chances along with temperatures
which will notably tick higher than normal by a few degrees for mid
July. A few locations across Arkansas will make a run at the century
mark for high temperatures and heat products will likely be
warranted over this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Chances for convection will remain possible across central and
mainly SRN sections of the state into this evening. Central and
NRN sections should remain mainly dry. Some patchy MVFR conditions
may linger into the early afternoon hrs from low CIGs...then
again on Mon morning with some patchy fog. Otherwise...dominant
VFR conditions are expected to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  71  89  69 /  10  10   0  10
Camden AR         87  71  90  70 /  40  40  10  10
Harrison AR       87  68  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    88  72  90  71 /  30  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  88  73  90  71 /  10  10  10   0
Monticello AR     88  72  90  71 /  30  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      86  70  89  70 /  40  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  87  69  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        88  72  89  71 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  71  89  70 /  30  10  10   0
Russellville AR   91  73  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
Searcy AR         88  71  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      88  73  89  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...62