654
FXUS64 KLZK 131122
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- A few PM showers/storms possible over northern Arkansas today

- Heat Advisory in effect today across a large part of the state

- Upper ridge to settle back over the region; hot/dry wx returns

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Regional WSR 88D radars depicted a complex of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing over SErn KS, SWrn MO, and NErn OK. This
complex was associated with a weak upper level disturbance within
background Wrly upper flow along and just ahead of a surface
boundary draped across Srn MO. This activity is expected to diminish
in coverage and intensity, owing to increasing convective
inhibition, through the predawn hours this morning as it tracks
along a focused surface Theta E gradient parallel to the front.

Today, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms could redevelop
over far Nrn AR associated with the aforementioned upper level
energy, proximity to remnant Theta E gradient, and diurnal heating
beneath and along a ribbon of PW`s hovering around 2.00 inches. The
main hazard with the strongest of storms would be damaging straight-
line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be expected across the
remainder of AR. Highs today should range from the lower 90s to
around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in place, and
heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected this afternoon
across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat Advisory is in
effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through sunset this evening.

Heading into this upcoming work week, a stout upper ridge will
become re-established across the Srn CONUS. Over this period of
time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region
between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the
ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each
day. Rain chances will remain minimal to none with heat index values
topping out between 100-110. Heat headlines will likely be needed
across portions of the state every day this week.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes
increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing
overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and
decreasing amount of daylight each day. To oppose these natural
cooling expectations one would normally expected, a strengthening
and amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will develop
across the region. For those curious about where climatological
average temps should be for this time of year these readings should
be Little Rock - Low 64, High 86; Pine Bluff - Low 65, High 87;
Harrison - Low 60, High 82. In summary, average highs and lows
are expected to run 10-15 degrees above average this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
SCT/BKN high clouds can be expected today with the potential of
SHRA/TSRA over Nrn AR, especially during the afternoon but due to
low confidence, did not include in the TAFs. Winds should be W/SW
at 10 kts or less today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  72  99  75 /   0   0  20   0
Camden AR         99  73  98  73 /  10   0  10   0
Harrison AR       92  71  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    97  74  98  74 /   0   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  99  76  99  77 /   0   0  20   0
Monticello AR     98  75  98  75 /  10   0  20   0
Mount Ida AR      98  72  98  72 /   0   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  93  70  95  72 /  30  20  10   0
Newport AR        95  73  98  75 /  10   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  73  98  74 /  10   0  20   0
Russellville AR   97  73  99  74 /  10   0  20   0
Searcy AR         97  72  99  73 /   0   0  20   0
Stuttgart AR     101  75  99  76 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70