595
FXUS65 KFGZ 022020
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
120 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry weather and gusty northeast winds
with little change in temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.
Slight chances for mountain showers and a bit cooler temperatures
arrive on Friday and over the weekend with a minor weather
disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate the weather across
northern Arizona through Thursday. Look for little change in
high/low temperatures under just a few high level cirrus. The only
feature of note will be a weak shortwave trough brushing the
northeast corner of Arizona from Tuesday into Thursday. Sinking
motion behind the trough will strengthen surface high pressure
over the Colorado Plateau which in turn will strengthen surface
pressure gradients across central and southern Arizona. The net
result, gusty northeast winds starting later on Tuesday and
lasting into Thursday, especially from the Mogollon Rim southward.
Winds will be strongest on Wednesday when north to northeast at
10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph are forecast. Winds will
linger into Thursday but diminish through the day.

From Friday onward...A weak and complicated low pressure system will
develop over Arizona. Overall upward forcing with this low will be
weak. However, the additional moisture and cold mid-level air
associated with the low will result in slight chances for
afternoon and early evening showers with daytime heating, mainly
over the mountains. Nothing significant anticipated here with snow
levels 7,500 to 8,500 and any heavier shower activity spotty at
best. The next best chance for a decent storm won`t be until the
middle of next week. Otherwise, look for light south to southwest
breezes and a bit cooler daytime temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 02/18Z through Tuesday 03/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds W-NW 5-10kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight, especially KSEZ where winds
could reach NE 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/18Z through Thursday 05/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Daytime winds N-NE 5-10kts Tuesday, NE
10-20kts Wednesday. Light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. KSEZ could see elevated NE winds overnight hours at
10-20kts, gusts 20-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry conditions with
daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds N-NE 5-15
mph on Tuesday, N-NE 10-20 mph on Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH
10-20% both days.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with daytime temperatures
5-10 degrees above average. Winds E 5-15 mph on Thursday, then SW 5-
10 mph on Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH is 15-25% on Thursday, 20-
40% on Friday, 20-35% on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff