324
FXUS65 KFGZ 021656
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
956 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through the week.
Gusty northeast winds develop on Tuesday and continue through
Thursday. Slight chances for showers arrive towards the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure dominates the weather across the Desert
Southwest through midweek before low pressure brings in some slight
chances for showers at the end of the week.

Another quiet weather day across the region as high pressure
continues to keep us warm and dry. Winds will be west to northwest
today with just some high clouds passing through. A weak shortwave
will move through the forecast area on Tueday, shifting winds to the
north to northeast and becoming a bit gusty as the pressure gradient
tightens up. High pressure builds over the the Great Basin through
midweek, keeping the northeasterly flow across our area through
Thursday. Temperatures may dip slightly but will remain 5-15 degrees
above normal.

By Wednesday, we start to see a low pressure develop off the Baja
California coast. The low moves slowly as the high blocks it off
from moving inland. By Thursday, there are signs that the high
starts to break down. This will allow for some of the energy
associated with the low to move northward and into the state.
Temperatures will remain warm with increasing cloud cover as the mid
level moisture increases. As far as precipitation goes, moisture
looks to be rather limited and outside of some slight chances for
showers over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim into the
White Mountains, it looks to remain dry through the weekend. Another
low may develop and move into the region late in the weekend into
early next week, so we may have more chances for some showers on the
way.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 02/18Z through Tuesday 03/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds W-NW 5-10kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight, especially KSEZ where winds
could reach NE 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/18Z through Thursday 05/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Daytime winds N-NE 5-10kts Tuesday, NE
10-20kts Wednesday. Light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. KSEZ could see elevated NE winds overnight hours at
10-20kts, gusts 20-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions with above
normal daytime temperatures. Winds are west through northwest 5-15
mph today, turning north through northeast on Tuesday. Afternoon
minimum RH between 15-30% Monday, then 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with above normal
temperatures continue. Winds are north through northeast 10-20 mph
on Wednesday, becoming east 5-15 mph on Thursday, then turning
southwest on Friday. Minimum RH is 10-25% on Wednesday and Thursday,
then 20-30% on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff