645
FXUS65 KFGZ 070501
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 PM MST Mon Apr 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A chance for showers and thunderstorms continues this
afternoon, with activity persisting into the night over the
eastern portions of Arizona. Warmer and dry weather then returns
Tuesday, lasting through the end of the work week. Another storm
system could potentially impact the region this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shortwave is moving into the region at this time.
Scattered light showers have developed over the area, and while a
couple thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, this morning`s
cloud cover will probably limit most convection. All precipitation
outside of the highest mountains will be rain with this one.
Precipitation amounts will range from a trace to a tenth over
western zones and deserts, to a quarter to a half inch over White
Mountains.

This shortwave will exit the area by tomorrow afternoon and
another ridge of high pressure builds in for the rest of the week.
This will once again send temperatures above average by about 10
degrees. Afternoon spring time breezes will increase starting on
Wednesday, mainly out of the southwest at 10-20 mph each
afternoon.

On Saturday another shortwave approaches the area and brings the
next chance of precipitation with it. It looks like it will be a
cooler system than todays system but still predominately a rain
maker. Sunday into Monday another system moves in with another
round of precipitation. Confidence is still low to medium on this
weekend`s scenario playing out, but it is trending that direction.
Will continue to monitor and see how it develops.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/06Z through Wednesday 08/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along and east of a Four
Corners-KSOW line through 00Z Wednesday. Brief MVFR conditions
and gusty winds possible with any showers. Otherwise, winds
generally light and variable at less than 10 kts nighttime,
W to NW at 5-15 kts during the late morning and afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW at 5-15 kts on Wednesday increasing to 10-20 kts gusting
to 25 kts on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue into early Tuesday, lingering across Apache
County through Tuesday afternoon. A wetting rainfall is not likely
on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect warmer and drier conditions to return
through Wednesday. West to northwest winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday,
becoming southwest on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
through Friday. Increasing moisture with chances for precipitation
return for Saturday. South to southwest winds 15-25 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff