627
FXUS65 KTWC 262050
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 PM MST Tue May 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast Arizona today
into early next week. An abnormally cool upper-low will make its way
into central California the middle of this week, resulting in
afternoon temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees below normal across
Southeast Arizona Wednesday and Thursday, with even cooler readings
10 to 14 degrees below normal across far western Pima county. This
system will also bring breezy to locally windy conditions across
much of area Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few breezy desert afternoons on tap for
southeast Arizona this week, particularly from the Tucson westward
across Tohono O`Odham Nation. The uptick in breeziness comes in
response to a transition in the upper level pattern with southeast
Arizona located between weather systems.

The first weather system that resulted in shower and thunderstorm
activity over the holiday weekend is now ejecting to the east. A few
lingering mid-level clouds are on tap this afternoon across the Gila
Valley and White Mountains, but with the core of that weather system
and associated moisture now exiting, precipitation chances have
diminished. The second weather system is forecast to dive south
out of the Pacific Northwest and deepen as it enters the Great
Basin. This anomalously strong Pacific system will result in
cooler temperatures extending into southeast Arizona.
Breezy/gusty south to southwest winds each afternoon through
Thursday may knock over garbage cans or patio furniture. While
these winds (15 to 25 mph, gusts around 30 mph) are mainly a
nuisance, they can also sustain fires. Speaking of fire
weather, despite the uptick in afternoon breeziness, the
abnormally strong Pacific storm system will result in an uptick
in humidity west of Tucson where temperatures will be below
normal by 10 to 14 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures will be
about 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

Looking at the extended forecast, ensembles are indicating that a
ridge of high pressure will evolve and eventually center over the
Four Corners region to start out June. Although we are still a ways
out, this pattern would support warmer afternoon high temperatures
with a gradual uptick in mid-level moisture. Right now the NBM gives
a slight chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms along the New
Mexico border starting Tuesday. With this pattern I would expect the
lower-levels of the atmosphere to be on the drier side supporting
virga and dry thunderstorms that can produce gusty and erratic
outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
Generally SKC with the exception of FEW-SCT 9k-11k ft AGL northeast
of Tucson near KSAD through 27/03Z. SFC winds SWLY 10-14 kts with
gusts around 22 kts thru 27/03Z becoming light and terrain driven
thereafter. SFC winds pick up again after 27/17Z becoming SLY/SWLY
at 12-17 kts with ocnl gusts to 26 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast Arizona
into early next week. An abnormally cool upper-low will make its way
into central California the middle of this week, resulting in below
normal across Southeast Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. This system
will also bring breezy to locally windy 20-foot winds from the
southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. This will result in
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and
Thursday, especially across the eastern portions of fire weather
zone 150 and zone 151. Min RH values will be in the 7-18 percent
range in the valleys and in the 14-20 percent range in the mountains
through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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