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FXAK67 PAJK 261807
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1007 AM AKDT Tue May 26 2026

.UPDATE...Morning marine/aviation forecast.

&&

.AVIATION... A front is pushing through Southeast Alaska, and it is
currently bringing rain and lower visibilities (1- 2 1/2 sm) to
Yakutat. After the front pushes through, conditions should generally
improve to MVFR for Yakutat.

As the front moves from Northwest to Southeast across the area,
expect it to bring rainfall, ceilings between 1500-2500ft, and gusty
winds. Behind the front, on shore flow looks to continue shower
chances through the end of the TAF period. Rain chances look highest
to the north of Fredrick Sound.

Today, Skagway and Haines will have gusty winds that should keep
flight conditions from deteriorating. Right now, TAF sites look to
stay below wind shear criteria, but it is being monitored.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: A frontal system continues to move through the Gulf of
Alaska. Winds over the northern coastal waters are expected to
slowly ease below 20kts this afternoon, until the front passes
through. Behind the frontal passage combined seas will remain
elevated with wave heights of 12-15ft. Seas are not expected to
ease below 8ft until Thursday.

Inside: Winds over the inner waters will increase throughout the
day, with most of the N-S oriented channels experiencing
sustained winds of 15-20kts. The exception to this is Lynn Canal
where sustained winds in the northern portion will remain
20-25kts, with gusts up to 33kts. Winds will ease as the front
moves through later tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ... 533AM Tuesday May 26, 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle through Tuesday,
  with increasing winds across the inner channels and elevated
  seas along the coast.

- Widespread shower potential continues through midweek, with
  winds largely diminishing by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...Minimal changes have
been made to the short term forecast as a front sits just
offshore of the northeastern gulf coast and will continue to push
inland through Tuesday. Yakutat will begin to see light rainfall
shortly as the front moves onshore through the early morning,
steadily moving eastward into the rest of the northern panhandle
and along the outer coast through midday and into the central
panhandle by the afternoon. This weak front is only expected to
bring light rainfall with 24 hour amounts a little over half an
inch for Yakutat and closer to a quarter of an inch for the rest
of the northern panhandle, continuing to decrease as you move
southward. A weak wave of precipitation trailing along the south
side of the front has the potential to jump up into the southern
panhandle tonight, though only minimal accumulations would be
expected. Onshore flow along the backside of the front will
continue abundant showers across the panhandle through midweek,
which will mostly remain light, but have the potential to bring
periods of heavier rates as they move through. Another weak wave
of precipitation looks to jump into the southern panhandle again
on Wednesday night, which will keep PoPs across the panhandle
elevated through midweek.

Breezy conditions will ramp back up across the area with the
initial front, with stronger winds focused around land-based
areas from Sitka northward, and gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at
times. Winds across the inner channels will climb up to 15 to 20
kt, with Lynn Canal reaching 25 kt. A wind advisory has been
issued for Skagway, with gusts up to 45 mph possible through
midday Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient will keep winds
relatively elevated through N/S oriented inner channels on
Wednesday, but without the added southerly forcing of the front,
these should stay capped at 20 kt or less. Winds will continue to
diminish through Wednesday night, becoming relatively light
through the rest of the week. See the marine discussion for more
details.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Saturday/ The mid to long term
forecast remains mainly unchanged as a low along the Aleutian chain
moves into the Gulf of Alaska late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low
will send a front into the panhandle bringing widespread rain
showers into SE AK. The NE gulf coast is most likely to see periods
of moderate showers with slightly elevated winds. On the other hand,
the southern panhandle is more likely to see longer breaks between
showers. The main impact from this low, Wednesday into Thursday,
will be increased southwesterly swell along the gulf and into the
gulf coast. The significant wave heights along the gulf are
anticipated to be around 15 ft at a period of 15 to 20 seconds.

Winds greatly decrease Thursday and remain on the lighter side into
the weekend as the low continues to weaken. However, this low will
continue to allow shower development into the panhandle with
continued onshore flow. Overall QPF remains on the lower side as
these showers are anticipated to be on the lighter side. Similar
conditions will continue into the weekend with breaks in between
showers. Along with this, slightly warmer maximum temperatures, than
what we have seen, are anticipated late this week through the
weekend. There is even a slight chance, around 40%, that portions of
the southern panhandle could see temperatures into the low 70s
during the start of next week. We will continue to monitor this
potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION.../ through Tuesday night / Mainly VFR Conditions
across the panhandle Tuesday morning, though there is a marine
deck along the coast of Baranof and Chichagof Islands, and Prince
of Wales Island and to Dixon Entrance may have lower clouds to
600 to 2000 ft. Winds did pick up over Northern Lynn Canal so
possibly some wind shear for Haines and Skagway through this
afternoon. Airports that are impacted by sea breezes in the
afternoon.

MARINE...
Outside: Coastal and Gulf winds have ranged between 15 to 25 kts
NW-ly through the afternoon as ridging shifts eastward across the
Gulf. Anticipating winds to shift SW through the late Tuesday
evening with wave heights diminishing to 6 to 9 ft with swell
becoming more SW-ly. By Tuesday morning, a 980 mb low near the AK
Pen sends a front across the Gulf with winds turning SW-ly and
barrier jet Gale formation from Icy Bay west to Cape Suckling. By
Tuesday evening, winds across the Gulf remain SW-ly around 10 to
15kts, increased along the Gulf and SE-ly around 20kts.

Inside:
Winds have remained around 15kts or less across the inner channels
as pressure gradient diminishes, going near calm and variable
overnight. Winds quickly increase through Tuesday afternoon with
N/S channels as gradient tightens from arriving frontal passage.
Strongest S-ly winds are expected in N Lynn, Taiya Inlet, and the
upper arms of Glacier Bay, sustained near 25 kts with gusts up to
35 kts. Expecting these winds to slacken slightly but continue
through the evening and into early Wednesday morning. Wave heights
around 2 to 3 feet are expected within the inner channels, up to
4 feet in the aforementioned locations.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...Butwin

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